Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sits near two-week top, around $1,920 ahead of Jackson Hole

• Gold price gains some positive traction for the fourth successive day on Thursday.
• Concerns about a deeper global economic downturn lend support to the XAU/USD.
• The emergence of some US Dollar buying might cap any further gains for the metal.

Gold price trades with a positive bias for the fourth successive day on Thursday and is currently placed just below the $1,920 area, or a nearly two-week high touched the previous day. The XAU/USD, however, lacks bullish conviction, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the $1,885 zone, or the lowest level since March 13 touched earlier this week.

Against the backdrop of the worsening economic conditions in China, a host of manufacturing surveys released on Wednesday painted a grim picture of the health of economies across the globe. Furthermore, the dismal macro data from the United States (US) showed that business activity in the world's largest economy approached the stagnation point in August. In fact, the S&P Global's flash Composite US PMI registered its biggest drop since November 2022 and fell to 50.4 in August from the 52 previous. This adds to worries about a deeper global economic downturn and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price.

Apart from this, diminishing odds for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which led to the overnight pullback in the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond from a 16-year peak, lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal. The markets, however, seem uncertain about the timing when the Fed will halt its rate-hiking cycle or even start cutting rates. This, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Gold price.

In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, now seems to have stalled its retracement slide from its highest level in more than two months touched on Wednesday. A modest USD strength could keep a lid on the US Dollar-denominated Gold price as investors keenly await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Investors will look for cues about the future rate-hike path, which will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD.

Technical levels to watch