EUR/JPY flat-lines above mid-157.00s, awaits ECB Lagarde's speech on Saturday

• EUR/JPY struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a narrow band on Friday.
• Bets that the ECB will pause its rate-hiking cycle in September act as a headwind for the cross.
• Expectations that the BoJ will stick to its dovish stance undermine the JPY and lend support.

The EUR/JPY cross attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lacks follow-through and remains confined in the previous day's broader range. Spot prices currently trade around the 157.65-157.70 region, nearly unchanged for the day, awaiting the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Saturday.

Speculations have been mounting that the ECB will halt its streak of nine consecutive rate hikes in September, especially after the flash PMI prints showed that business activity in the Euro Zone declined more than expected in August. Hence, investors will closely scrutinise Lagarde's remarks for fresh cues about the future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in influencing the shared currency and provide a fresh directional impetus to the EUR/JPY cross.

In the meantime, the downside seems cushioned in the wake of the prevalent selling bias around the Japanese Yen (JPY). Receding fears of an imminent intervention by authorities, along with a more dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), continue to undermine the JPY and should lend support to the EUR/JPY cross. In fact, the BoJ is the only central bank in the world to maintain negative rates and is widely expected to stick to its ultra-ease policy settings.

The bets were reaffirmed by data released on Friday, showing that consumer inflation in Tokyo – Japan’s capital city – grew at a slower-than-expected pace in August. In fact, the Statistics Bureau reported that the headline Tokyo CPI eased to the 2.9% YoY rate in August from 3.2% prior, though the core figure, which excludes fresh food and energy costs, remained at 4% – its highest level in over 40 years. The data, however, fails to provide any respite to the JPY bulls.

The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, holds back traders from placing aggressive directional bets around the EUR/JPY cross and contributes to the subdued/range-bound price action on the last day of the week. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that spot prices have topped out and positioning for an extension of this week's retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-159.00s, or the highest level since September 2008.

Technical levels to watch