USD/JPY soars as Fed Powell’s hawkish stance fuels tightening speculations

• Powell’s hawkish tone on inflation and rate hikes sends USD/JPY whipsawing, eyeing a test of the year-to-date high of 146.56.
• Despite signs of disinflation, Powell insists there’s still a “long road ahead” to reach the Fed’s 2% target, adding uncertainty to the market.
• Powell cites above-trend growth and a tight labor market as potential catalysts for further hikes in the Federal Funds Rate, keeping traders on their toes.

USD/JPY rallies after remaining within familiar ranges in a choppy trading session before the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hit the stand and delivered hawkish remarks, putting into the table additional tightening. The USD/JPY is whipsawing around 145.70-146.50 as it eyes a test of the year-to-date (YTD) high of 146.56.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone propels the USD/JPY to new YTD highs

At Jackson Hole, the Fed Chair Powell said they are prepared to continue its tightening cycle if appropriate. He emphasized that the US central bank would be data-dependent and proceed “carefully” when deciding to pause or raise borrowing costs.

Regarding inflation, he said there’s a long way to go, despite two months of good data showing the disinflationary process continues towards the US central bank goal of a 2% target. Powell added they remain unsure about the neutral rate peak and acknowledged that monetary policy faces risks on both sides, meaning over and under-tightening.

Powell emphasized that the above trend growth and tightness in the labor market would be reasons to increase the Federal Funds Rate (FFR). He added that he expects July Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) at 3.3%, while core PCE at 4.3%.

USD/JPY reaction

The USD/JPY oscillated at around 145.70-146.10 on Powell’s remarks but gathered direction and rose to a new year-to-date (YTD) high of 146.63 before settling at around current exchange rates. Resistance on the upside is the 147.00 figure and the November 3 high at 148.45.

It should be said the Greenback (USD) is staging a recovery, as shown by the US Dollar Index, which turned positive, sits at 104.360, gains 0.35%, underpinned by US Treasury bond yields, which are beginning to track higher.

USD/JPY 5-minute chart