EUR/GBP reverses from 0.8585 to snap four-day uptrend despite downbeat UK inflation data

• EUR/GBP reverses from two-week high to print the first daily loss in five.
• UK BRC Shop Price Index drops to the lowest level since October 2022.
• Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Survey gauge slumps -25.5 versus -24.3 expected and -24.6 prior.
• British trader’s reaction to Jackson Hole, inflation concerns eyed for fresh impulse after long weekend in UK.

EUR/GBP bears return to the table after a four-day holiday as the cross-currency pair reverses from the intraday high heading into Tuesday’s European session. That said, the quote takes offers to refresh the daily low around 0.8575 by the press time.

In doing so, the EUR/GBP pair ignores downbeat inflation signals from the UK shops amid the downbeat German consumer sentiment gauge. In doing so, the quote portrays a U-turn from the 0.8585 DMA confluence stated in the technical analysis.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Survey gauge dropped to -25.5 in September versus -24.3 expected and -24.4 prior.

Earlier in the day, the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) annual shop price inflation slumped to the lowest level since October 2022 while flashing 6.9% mark for August, versus 7.6% reported in July.

It’s worth noting that Germany’s highly influential IFO institute published a survey of exporters and cited the deteriorating morale in August due to weak global demand, which in turn prod the Euro bulls the previous day. The poll also mentioned, “More and more companies are also complaining about being less able to compete at the global level.”

However, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire ruled out any reduction in European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates in the coming months and put a floor under the bloc’s currency.

On the other hand, the UK markets were closed on Monday due to the Summer Bank Holiday but the hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent seem to keep the British Pound (GBP) buyers hopeful of late. That said, BoE’s Broadbent cited the need for higher rates due to the wage pressure at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Moving on, a light calendar for the rest of the day might restrict the EUR/GBP pair’s moves but the British traders’ reaction to the latest catalysts and preparations for this week’s top-tier Eurozone inflation data could keep the bears hopeful.

Technical analysis

A convergence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA, around 0.8585, appears a tough nut to crack for the EUR/GBP bulls. That said, the pullback moves can aim for the late 2022 low near 0.8550-45 amid lackluster oscillators.