GBP/JPY regains 184.00 despite downbeat UK inflation expectations, focus on Japan GDP, BoE news

• GBP/JPY stays defensive after two-day losing streak, bounces off one-week low.
• UK FinMin Hunt expects slower inflation despite September’s blip, challenging BoE rate hikes.
• Japan Monetary Base expands in August, suggesting need for hawkish BoJ.
• BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings, Japan Q2 2023 GDP will be important for fresh impulse.

GBP/JPY floats above 184.00 while struggling to defend the early-day rebound from a one-week low during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair justifies the mixed headlines about the UK and Japan amid sluggish markets due to the US Labor Day holiday.

“We are on track to halve inflation this year and by sticking to our plan we will ease the pressure on families and businesses alike," said UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt during the weekend per Reuters. The policymaker, however, also told the BBC that he thinks of witnessing a blip in inflation in September but also anticipated the fall in inflation to around 5.0% as per the Bank of England (BoE) forecasts.

The same joins the recently downbeat concerns about the BoE’s rate hike and prod the GBP/JPY rebound. However, Friday’s revised British economic data joins the sticky inflation in the UK to keep the buyers hopeful.

On the other hand, the recent Japan Monetary Base data for August suggests an increase in liquidity with 1.2% YoY growth versus -1.3% prior. The same joins the market’s hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to defend the Japanese Yen (JPY) buyers despite the cautious optimism in the market and inactive bond markets, due to the US holiday.

It’s worth observing that the BoJ policymakers have been defending the ultra-easy monetary policy and putting a floor under the GBP/JPY price, especially when the BoE Officials are hawkish.

Amid these plays, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields dropped in the last two consecutive weeks after rising to the highest levels since 2007, to 4.18% at the latest. Further, the Wall Street benchmarks also improved in the recent few days, despite Friday’s sluggish closing, while the S&P 500 Futures printed mild gains by the press time.

Moving on, BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings and Japan’s second-quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be crucial for clear directions. Should the Japanese growth data improve and the BoE policymakers sound cautious, the GBP/JPY may witness the bear’s dominance.

Technical analysis

GBP/JPY stays beneath the 21-DMA hurdle, around 184.50, despite the latest rebound, which in turn joins the bearish signals to direct the sellers toward the 50-DMA support of 183.00.