USD/JPY rebounds on strong US ISM data, Fed’s rate hike looms

• USD/JPY recovers ground after the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for August beats expectations, coming in at 54.5 versus the anticipated 52.5.
• US Treasury bond yields surge, with the 10-year note rate gaining 10 basis points to 4.296%, as traders reconsider a November rate hike by the Fed.
• Japanese officials weigh options amid currency speculation; traders should be aware of the 148.00/150.00 range.

The Greenback (USD) recovered some lost ground against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday after data from the United States (US) surprised the markets. That triggered a jump in the USD/JPY, which traders volatile at around 147.30/98, remains negative.

USD/JPY remains volatile after surprising US ISM report; rising US bond yields

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed the Non-Manufacturing PMI for August, also called services, which showed that business activity is gaining traction. The reading came at 54.5 from the 52.5 expected and above July’s 52.7. The price index subcomponent rose by 58.9 in August from 56.8 in July.

Even though the latest measures of inflation depict the US Federal Reserve (Fed) job is on track to achieve its 2% goal, the latest report of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, rose by 3.3% in July, a minor setback on its task. Given that and the last ISM report, traders put back on the table a 25 basis point rate hike in November, which would witness the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) reaching the 5.50%-5.75% range.

Consequently, US Treasury bond yields soared, with the 10-year benchmark note rate at 4.296%, gains 10 basis points, while the US Dollar Index reached a seven-month high of 105.024, up 0.21%.

The USD/JPY trimmed some losses after news from the Asian session witnessed Japanese officials considering options amid currency speculation. Hence, market participants and authorities would greatly scrutinize the 148.00/150.00 range, so caution is warranted before placing fresh, long bets on the pair.

The Japanese economic docket would feature a speech by the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Nakagawa. On the US front, unemployment claims and speeches by a slew of Fed officials could give some direction on the US central bank’s monetary policy path.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY remains upward biased, and it might test the 148.00 figure if not for Japanese authorities threatening to intervene in the FX markets to propel its currency. The next resistance would be the November 1 daily high at 148.82. On the downside, risks emerge at last week’s high-turned support at 147.37, followed by the 147.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the Tenkan-Senat 146.12.

USD/JPY Price Action - Daily chart