- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- Eurozone: A minor contraction in the economy for H2 2023 – Danske Bank
Eurozone: A minor contraction in the economy for H2 2023 – Danske Bank
Analysts at Danske Bank project a minor contraction in the European economy during the second half of 2023. They argue that the disinflationary process is underway, but not enough for the European Central Bank (ECB) to be confident in the timely return to the 2% target.
Bye-bye two speed economy. Hello contraction
The August PMIs painted a gloomy picture following the also weak July print. Service PMI dropped to a 30-month low of 48.3, entering contractionary territory, while the manufacturing sector continued to register declining activity. The releases conclude the end of the two-speed economy with the service sector paving the way for benign growth, while the manufacturing sector struggled.
The drag in European business activity mainly attributes to the downturn in Europe’s largest economy – Germany - where activity declined at a 3-year high pace. The worsening of euro area activity should be seen as a feature rather than a bug given the ECB’s tightening mode the last year.
The risk is that activity suddenly declines too fast. Going forward, we expect a small contraction in the euro area GDP in H2 2023, partly driven by the gloomy Chinese outlook, persisting monetary headwinds, and the recent service sector weakness signs.
The disinflationary process is underway, but not enough for the ECB to be confident to the timely return to the 2% target.
The worsened economic outlook and markets turning more dovish, we expect the ECB to deliver a 25bp hike at the September meeting, marking a peak in the deposit rate of 4.00%
© 2000-2025. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
