USD/INR Price Analysis: Retreats further from multi-week peak, holds above 83.00 mark

• USD/INR drifts lower for the second successive day, albeit lacks follow-through selling.
• The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels.
• A convincing break below the 200-day SMA is needed to negate the positive outlook.

The USD/INR pair remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Friday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, albeit manages to hold above the 83.00 mark heading into the European session.

The said handle represents a strong horizontal resistance breakpoint and should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders, which if broken might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels and should help limit any further losses for the USD/INR pair.

Some follow-through selling below the 82.85-82.80 region, however, might expose the weekly low, around the 82.60-82.55 zone. The next relevant support is pegged near the 82.35 area (August 24 low), which coincides with a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A convincing break below might shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders and make the USD/INR pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards retesting sub-82.00 levels.

On the flip side, the 83.35-83.40 area, or a three-week top touched on Wednesday, could now provide some resistance to the upside ahead of the record high, around the 83.55 region set on August 16. Bulls need to wait for a sustained strength beyond the latter before positioning for any further appreciating move. The subsequent move-up should allow the USD/INR bulls to aim to conquer the 84.00 round-figure mark.

USD/INR daily chart

Technical levels to watch