USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bounces off 147.00 mark, shows resilience below 200-hour SMA

• USD/JPY meets with some supply on Thursday and is pressured by a combination of factors.
• Bets that the BoJ will end its negative interest rate policy lift the JPY and weigh on the major.
• A modest USD downtick contributes to the fall, though the 147.00 mark helps limit losses.

The USD/JPY pair comes under some selling pressure on Thursday and reverses the previous day's positive move to the 147.75 area, or the weekly high. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a few pips from the daily low and trade around the 147.25 region, down less than 0.15% during the early part of the European session.

Speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will end its ultra-easy monetary policy underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, fail to assist the USD/JPY pair to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days. Spot prices, however, show some resilience below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and attract some buyers near the 147.00 round-figure mark, which should now act as a pivotal point for intraday traders.

Technical indicators on the daily chart, meanwhile, are holding in the bullish territory and have again started moving in the positive territory on the 1-hour chart. This, in turn, supports prospects for a further appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. Hence, a subsequent move back towards testing 147.85 region, or the highest level since November 2022, remains a distinct possibility. This is followed by the 148.00 mark, which if cleared will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls.

The USD/JPY pair might then accelerate the momentum towards the 148.70-148.80 hurdle before aiming to conquer the 148.00 mark for the first time since October 2022. That said, speculations that Japanese authorities might interfere in the FX market to prop up the domestic currency might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets and cap any further upside for spot prices.

On the flip side, the 147.00 round figure might continue to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 146.75-146.70 region, representing an ascending trend-line support extending from the late July swing low. A convincing break below might prompt aggressive technical selling and drag the USD/JPY pair towards the 146.00 mark. The corrective decline could get extended to the 145.30 area en route to the 145.00 psychological mark and the monthly low, around the 144.45 zone.

USD/JPY 1-hour chart

Technical levels to watch