EUR/GBP testing higher waters near 0.8650 after UK CPI miss

• The EUR/GBP is catching some lift on the back of softer-than-expected UK inflation data.
• The week is still heavy on the economic calendar, with UK and EU PMI figures still in the barrel.
• The BoE is set for one last rate hike on Thursday.

The EUR/GBP caught a bump higher during Wednesday trading after the United Kingdom’s (UK) inflation reading came in below market expectations, sending the Pound Sterling (GBP) lower and giving the Euro (EUR) a leg up.

The Euro-Pound pair lifted from the day’s open near 0.8620 after the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures broadly missed the mark, with August’s CPI reading coming in at just 0.3%, versus the forecast 0.7%.

The previous month’s CPI declined by 0.4%, and markets are readjusting their Pound Sterling bets as the Bank of England (BoE) is set to give just one more rate hike this cycle.

The BoE is slated to give its latest rate call at 11:00 GMT on Thursday, where the central bank is broadly expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to 5.5% from 5.25. Inflation has proven to be a sticky point for the UK’s domestic economy, but the last round of inflation figures means the rate of price increases has begun to slow.

UK inflation slows down, BoE to be pressured off rate hike cycle

GBP traders will want to reassess inflation expectations and what that could mean for the rate hike cycle moving forward.

On the economic calendar, The BoE will be followed up by Retail Sales and Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures on Friday, where the EU will also see September’s preliminary PMIs.

UK Retail Sales are expected to rebound to 0.5% from the last reading of -1.2%, while the UK PMI composite is seen ticking up slightly from 48.6 to 48.7.

On the EUR side, pan-EU composite PMI figures are forecast to slide from 46.7 to 46.5.

If market data comes in at expectations, it could challenge the Euro’s current position on the charts.

EUR/GBP technical outlook

The EUR/GBP’s Wednesday bounce takes the pair firmly up through the 0.8640 level, and is currently cycling the 0.8650 level as traders look for further momentum.

A rising trendline is currently baking into the charts on the hourly candles, with the 34-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rising into 0.8635.

On the daily candles, The Euro is set to confirm a break of the descending trendline from July’s swing high into the 0.8700 handle. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently sits just beyond, parked near 0.8710

EUR/GBP technical levels