Natural Gas supply crunch makes Europe fall short of full supply ahead of winter

• Natural Gas pops higher towards $3.
• The US Dollar looks set for an eleventh straight week of gains.
• US Natural Gas prices are in an ascending trendline formation and could break to $3.3.

Natural Gas prices are trending higher despite Oil attracting all the attention in the energy market. Gas prices are soaring on more negative news out of Norway, raising concerns over  gas supply from the Scandinavian bloc to Europe. Mounting supply problems could leave the old continent on balance of falling short of gas to fill up its reserves full ahead of the winter season. 

The US Dollar (USD) is on track to lock in an eleventh consecutive week of gains as the interest-rate differential between the US and other countries gets bigger by the day. This differential keeps backing the US Dollar as it does the flight to safe havens, where the Greenback is the place to be. King Dollar’s rally hasn’t likely finished and might head toward the 52-week high when measured by the DXY US Dollar Index.

Natural Gas is trading at $2.99 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  

Natural Gas news and market movers

• The Norwegian Asgard field is having unforeseen capacity reductions due to a delayed ramp up after maintenance, network manager Gassco AS said Thursday. 
• Also in Norway, the works at the Kvitebjorn field are extended to October 1. 
• The Norwegian Oseberg field and the Emden terminal are as well signalling issues and delays in reopening by another three days until after October 1.
• Contracts for September are rolling off on Thursday. Looking back at their performance, the September contracts have moved up 15% in value, with a 4.2% gain solely on Wednesday. 
• With October set to get underway, the first big drawdowns from European gas storages might start. 
• All eyes are on the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) publication of US gas storage changes. Expectations are for another build from 64 billion to 88 billion cubic feet.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Seasonal pop

Natural Gas is grinding higher at the moment when bigger brother Oil is hijacking all the headlines. The surprise delays and cuts in gas supply from Norway to Europe disrupts the supply side briefly, which grants an upside move. On the technical front, the current bullish triangle is an element to watch as a breakout might see Natural Gas trading near $3.3 soon. 

Awaiting the breakout of the triangle, $3 remains a key level that needs to be broken. Seeing the current equilibrium, a catalyst is needed to move the needle upwards. Gas prices could rally to $3.25 in a bullish triangle breakout, testing the upper band of the ascending trend channel.

On the downside, the ascending trendline at $2.90 should support any attempts to break lower. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2.80 could act as a circuit breaker in case there is a nosedive move. Should that give way, some area will be crossed before the next support kicks in at $2.75. This level aligns with the 55-day SMA, which is likely to step in to avoid any price crashes in the commodity. 

XNG/USD (Daily Chart)