Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD turns volatile near $22.50 ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation gauge

• Silver price delivers volatile moves near $22.50 as US Dollar attempts recovery.
• Weekly jobless claims increased by 2K to 204K this week but remained below expectations of 215K.
• Silver price forms a Head and Shoulder pattern whose breakdown triggers a bearish reversal.

Silver price (XAG/USD) demonstrates a volatile action near $22.50 after the release of lower-than-anticipated weekly Jobless Claims data for the week ending September 22. The US Department of Labor reported that individuals claiming jobless claims for the first time increased by 2K to 204K from the previous week’s release but remained lower than expectations of 215K.

Meanwhile, the final reading of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June quarter remained in line with the previous estimate and the market expectation of 2.1% on an annualized basis.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) corrects to 106.20 after refreshing a six-month high near 106.80 as profit-booking kicks in. The broader bias for the US Dollar is still bullish as the US economy is resilient due to falling inflation, an upbeat labor market, and robust consumer spending. The 10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 4.65%, showing strength in expectations of one more interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday that he is unsure whether the central bank has hiked enough to bring down core inflation to 2%.

For further guidance, investors will focus on the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price Index data for August, which will be published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price forms a Head and Shoulder chart pattern on a daily scale, which indicates a prolonged consolidation whose breakdown triggers a bearish reversal. The neckline of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from June 23 low at $22.11. The white metal trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.15, which indicates that the short-term trend is bearish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) slips below 40.00, indicating no signs of divergence and oversold, warranting more downside.

Silver daily chart