Gold price remains sideways despite weak US data

• Gold price strives for a direction despite easing labor market conditions.
• The US economy could lose its resilience if the Nonfarm Payrolls report misses expectations.
• The latest US Services PMI Orders dropped significantly, portraying a deteriorating demand outlook.

Gold price (XAU/USD) has traded sideways since Tuesday as investors await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will give a snapshot of the current status of the United States labor market. The precious metal failed to climb above the $1,830 ceiling on Wednesday despite soft ADP Employment Change and new Services PMI orders, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is not expected to surrender its ‘higher-for-longer’ stance on interest rates.

The US Dollar (USD) has risen due to rising real rates amidst falling inflation, however, easing labor market conditions could dent its appeal. 

This week, Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester said that interest rates should rise again in November if the economy continues to remain the way it is. Evidence of weakening labor demand, however, could prove a spoiler leading to the Fed’s interest rates staying unchanged.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price awaits the US NFP report

• Gold price falls back while attempting a break above the immediate resistance of $1,830.00 as the US Dollar rebounds after correcting to near 106.50. 10-year US Treasury yields improve to near 4.74%.
• The precious metal failed to capitalize on soft US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI and a weak ADP Employment Change report for September.
• The US ADP reported that employers hired 89K fresh talent in September, almost half  August’s reading of 180K and lower than expectations of 153K. This was the lowest labor growth since January 2021.
• Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP said "We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month"." Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months."
• Loosening labor market conditions is expected to dent expectations for one more interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in the remainder of 2023, which were propelled by hawkish interest rate guidance from Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
• The US Services PMI for September matched expectations at 53.6 but dropped from the 54.5 reading in August. Being a proxy for the US service sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, the economic data carries weight and importance. 
• New Services PMI Orders dropped significantly to 51.8 against the former release of 57.5, indicating a poor demand outlook. 
• On the US factory activity front, the Manufacturing PMI for September improved significantly. A revival in the US manufacturing sector is anticipated. New Factory Orders in August expanded by 1.2% vs. expectations of a 0.3% gain on a monthly basis. In July, orders for US-made goods contracted by 2.1%.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) faced selling pressure after weak US data on Wednesday but has revived gradually as investors appear to have placed less significance on the September ADP Employment Change. The Fed is scheduled to announce its next monetary policy move in November. Policymakers are expected to give more preference to October’s private payrolls data.
• Meanwhile, investors await the NFP report for September, which will provide more clarity about labor market conditions.
• According to estimates, the US labor force is expected to have witnessed fresh additions of 170K employees – lower than the former release of 187K. The Unemployment Rate is seen declining to 3.7% vs. August’s reading of 3.8%.
• In addition to the jobs data, investors will watch out for the Average Hourly Earnings data. On a monthly basis, labor earnings are forecast to have expanded at a higher pace of 0.3% against a 0.2% jump recorded in August. The annual data is seen unchanged at 4.3%. Higher wages could elevate consumer inflation expectations ahead.

Technical Analysis: Gold price trades in $1,820-1,830 range

Gold price remains inside the woods in a $1,820-1,830 range from late Tuesday as investors await the US NFP report. The precious metal struggles for a direction but the downside bias seems favored as the 50 and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have delivered a bear cross. A seven-day losing spell has been recorded in the Gold price. Momentum oscillators trade in the oversold zone but more downside cannot be ruled out.