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- “Higher for longer” policy and a US recession – TDS
“Higher for longer” policy and a US recession – TDS
Toronto-Dominion Securities strategists have increased their forward-looking interest rate expectations from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the face of higher rates for longer than expected, despite the very real risk of an impending recession. Emphasis added for clarity.
H4L and the Case for a US Recession
The resilience of the US economy so far this year means the normalization process will take longer than initially anticipated. It has also led the Fed to double-down on its “higher for longer” (H4L) policy signaling.
Still, we remain of the view that a recession is the most likely outcome for next year despite recent strength in activity data. However, we are pushing back our expectation for the start of a US recession by a quarter to 24Q2.
We now look for the Fed to start reducing rates in June 2024 rather than in March and forecast less overall monetary policy easing of 250bp from 300bp before. We also continue to expect the Fed to discontinue quantitative tightening (QT) when rate cuts begin.
The move higher in rates over the past several months has been driven by a number of factors, including expectations of a higher for longer Fed, supply concerns, oil price worries, and technical weakness. Given our expectation for a later start to the US recession, we raise our forecast for the 10y to 4.3% at the end of 2023 and 3.15% at the end of 2024.
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