GBP/USD hangs near weekly low, below mid-1.2100s; looks to Fed’s Powell for fresh impetus

• GBP/USD is seen consolidating in a range near the lower end of a one-week-old trading range.
• The uncertainty over the BoE’s next policy move continues to act as a headwind for the GBP.
• Hawkish Fed expectations, geopolitical risks underpin the USD and also contribute to capping.
• Investors keenly await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech before placing fresh directional bets.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Thursday and oscillates in a narrow band, below mid-1.2100s during the Asian session. Spot prices flirt with the lower end of a one-week-old trading range, awaiting a fresh catalyst before the next leg of a directional move.

The British Pound (GBP) continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of the uncertainty over the next policy move by the Bank of England (BoE), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. The latest UK consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday showed that the headline CPI remained steady at 6.7% in September against expectations for a modest dip to 6.6%, riving bets for a potential BoE rate hike in November. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), meanwhile, reported earlier this week that wage growth moderated slightly in the three months to August, which might allow the BoE to hold interest rates at their current level.

This comes on top of the BoE's chief economist, Huw Pill's comments last week, saying that the question of further rate rises was finely balanced. Furthermore, BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra cautioned that overtightening could potentially harm the UK's supply potential, while Catherine Mann advocated for an aggressive monetary policy to combat inflation. The split in the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) regarding how to respond to the incoming economic indicators is holding back traders from placing fresh directional bets around the GBP/USD pair ahead of the second batch of labour market data due next Tuesday. In the meantime, a bullish US Dollar (USD) might continue to cap the upside.

The Greenback continues to draw support from growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer in the wake of a still-resilient US economy. The outlook, meanwhile, lifted the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield to a fresh 16-year peak on Wednesday, which, along with the risk of an escalation in war between Hamas and Israel, is seen underpinning the safe-haven buck. This further contributes to capping the upside for the GBP/USD pair. That said, the lack of strong follow-through selling warrants some caution for bearish traders as the focus remains glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech later during the North American session.

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