- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- BoJ Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for USD/JPY – TDS
BoJ Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for USD/JPY – TDS
Economists at TD Securities discuss the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision and their implications for the USD/JPY pair.
Hawkish (10%): Complete removal of YCC
The BoJ scraps YCC and sets the stage for the end of NIRP as the virtuous cycle of price and wage hikes is taking off. The Bank is likely to shade up the FY24 core inflation forecast but more importantly, the FY25 core inflation forecast may have a 2% handle (prior: 1.6%) to reflect the exit from Japan's deflationary past. USD/JPY -2.5%.
Base Case (55%): Raise in upper ceiling to 1.5%
The BoJ widens the upper end of the reference range for 10y JGBs from 1% to 1.5% and potentially increases the rate of its fixed rate purchase operations. The Bank could signal that this tweak is a preemptive move again given the upside risks from wages and prices. Implicitly behind the tweak, the BoJ is likely cognizant that it’s a tough battle to curb the rise in yields given offshore moves, and real rates may become too accommodative as a result of the shift higher in inflation expectations. Ueda could take this chance to set the ground for an end to YCC in Dec and the end of NIRP in Jan'24. USD/JPY -1%.
Dovish (35%): No change to YCC settings
BoJ keeps YCC settings unchanged and reiterates that there is some distance before the 2% price goal is in sight. The Bank may retain its FY24 and FY25 core inflation forecasts <2% to drive the message that the current inflationary pressure is transitory and unlikely to last. USD/JPY +0.5%.
© 2000-2025. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
