USD/MXN loses ground near 17.6000 ahead of US inflation data

• USD/MXN could weaken as US inflation is expected to rise at a lower rate.
• Fed may consider a rate hike if US CPI data exceeds the expectation.
• Banxico Governor Rodriguez highlighted the possibility of rate cuts.

USD/MXN seems to extend losses on the third successive day, trading around 17.6000 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair faces downward pressure before the US CPI data as inflation is expected to rise but at a slower pace in October. Meanwhile, the forecast for the core annual rate remains stable.

However, if the upcoming inflation data exceeds expectations, it may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider increasing interest rates by 25 basis points in subsequent meetings. The data-dependent approach highlighted by Fed officials indicates that robust inflation figures could play a pivotal role in shaping the central bank's decisions toward further tightening.

The Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja has highlighted the possibility of discussing rate cuts due to the easing inflationary outlook. She mentioned that any monetary policy loosening could be gradual and may not necessarily imply continuous rate cuts. The board, she noted, would consider macroeconomic conditions, signaling a data-dependent approach in their decision-making.

Banxico's decision to maintain interest rates at 11.25% aligns with the context of Mexico's inflation, which expanded by 4.26% year on year in October. This figure, slightly below the forecasted 4.28% and notably lower than the previous reading of 4.45%, likely played a role in the central bank's decision. Additionally, Banxico has committed to working towards achieving its 3.0% inflation target by the year 2025, signaling a commitment to maintaining policy rates at their current level for some time.