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- USD/JPY: MOF’s verbal interventions illustrate how much one would like to see a Yen recovery – Commerzbank
USD/JPY: MOF’s verbal interventions illustrate how much one would like to see a Yen recovery – Commerzbank
Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, analyzes the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy.
Verbal interventions and the continuation of the ultra-expansionary monetary policy seen as consistent aspects
Anyone who feels kindly towards the BoJ might argue that it is finally doing what the band of economists of this world has been urging it to do for ages: to allow inflation to overshoot to rekindle inflation expectations amongst the public. And according to the logic of the economists that will lead to stable inflation rates which will continue even after the current inflation shock has died down completely.
The only problem about this interpretation is: if the BoJ was thinking like that, the BoJ should be thrilled that the Yen is so weak. Every time a big figure is reached in USD/JPY, the BoJ should be popping the champagne. The verbal interventions of the Ministry of Finance (MOF) illustrate, however, how concerned it is about the Yen weakness and how much one would like to see a JPY recovery.
One could put this down to a disagreement between the BoJ and the MOF and interpret the situation as the MOF and BoJ opposing each other. My experience teaches me to be cautious about explanations that presume a conflict of interest between both institutions. And that leaves only one interpretation, that explains verbal interventions and the continuation of the ultra-expansionary monetary policy as consistent aspects. I would love to hear from anyone who can think of another interpretation rather than the monetization of public debt!
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