USD/CHF sees a dip to 0.8730 as US Dollar softens after ADP Employment Change miss

• The USD/CHF is down slightly on Wednesday, but still up around 0.66% on the week.
• US ADP Employment Change added fewer jobs than forecast models predicted.
• The back half of the trading week sees a strong focus on US labor figures.

The USD/CHF shed a little over a tenth of a percent from Wednesday’s peak bids of 0.8760 before a pullback towards the day’s opening prices in the American market session.

Investors are seeing a possible softening of the US’ current rate of job growth after the ADP Employment Change came in below expectations, showing a gain of 103K jobs in November versus the expected 130K. The ADP November Employment Change slipped back from October’s print of 106K (revised down from 113K), reversing investors’ expectations of an increase in new jobs growth.

With the ADP printing its lowest jobs addition since February 2021, focus will be increasing on Friday’s upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Markets are currently forecasting Friday’s US NFP for November to come in at 185K versus October’s 150K. US NFP jobs gains have missed expectations for three of the last five MoM prints.

Friday’s NFP will be be followed up by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index, and the monthly consumer outlook survey is expected to come in at 62.0 for December, an increase over November’s 61.3.

Before that, Thursday sees US Initial Jobless Claims for the week into December 1st, where markets are expecting another slight uptick from 218K to 222K new jobless benefits applicants.

USD/CHF Technical Outlook

The USD/CHF is trading thinly through the mid-week market session, trading in a tight Wednesday range between 0.8760 and 0.8730.

Intraday prices are getting hung up on the  50-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), and overall price momentum appears to have drained out of the pair as bids approach the 200-hour SMA, just above the day’s range near 0.8760.

Despite Wednesday’s price stall the USD/CHF remains in the green, up three-quarters of a percent from Monday’s opening bids, but the pair is still buried deep in bear country, down a little over 4% from November’s peak of 0.9112 and in the red 5.75% on the year.

The 50-day SMA is set for a bearish crossover of the longer 200-day SMA, but the fourth quarter’s accelerated declines in the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc leaves price action well below the daily candlestick average, with the 200-day SMA currently drifting down into 0.8950.

USD/CHF Hourly Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/CHF Technical Levels