Gold price remains on the defensive ahead of US CPI data

• Gold prices are flat on Tuesday, with the US Dollar losing ground ahead of the US CPI release.
• Investors are awaiting US inflation data for more information about the Fed’s monetary policy plans.
• Gold’s near-term bias remains negative, with hopes of Fed cuts ebbing.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) ticked higher on Tuesday’s early trade, yet with price action unable to find a meaningful acceptance above the $1,990 level. 

The precious metal remains practically flat on the day as traders await the release of the US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures, which will lay the groundwork for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.  

The market consensus anticipates a slight decline in the headline data, which is expected to come in at 3.1% from the 3.2% yearly increase seen in October. The core inflation reading, which strips out the more volatile components of food and energy, is seen steady at 4% year-on-year.

On Wednesday, the Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold at the current 5.25%-5.5% band and put the focus on the interest rate projections for next year and on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Investors will be looking for dovish hints on Powell’s comments to revive hopes of rate cuts in early 2024, which would give a fresh boost to Gold prices.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold draws some support from weaker US Dollar, softer yields

• Gold prices have found some support on Tuesday after a two-day decline, favoured by softer US yields and a weaker US Dollar ahead of the US CPI data.
   
• Investors have digested the unexpectedly strong US employment figures seen on Friday and are looking to US CPI for more cues into the Fed’s monetary policy plans.
   
• US CPI is expected to have increased at a 3.1% year-on-year pace in November, down from 3.2% in October. The core CPI is seen steady at 4% year-on-year.
   
• Inflation data is expected to have a relevant weight on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve’s decision and, therefore, it might boost US Dollar volatility.
   
• The market is pricing a 45% chance of Fed rate cuts in March, while the odds for a May rate cuts are evenly split, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.
   
• Geopolitical tensions continue growing amid news of attacks to the US troops in the Middle East by Iran-backed groups. This provides some support to precious metals on the back of their safe-haven status.

Technical Analysis: Gold remains on the defensive, with $1,980 support under pressure

The technical picture for Gold remains bearish, with upside attempts capped well below the $2,000 psychological level. Price action has broken below the main Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in the 4-hour charts, which leaves the $1,980 support level under increasing bearish pressure.

The mentioned $1,980 is the neckline of a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October - December rally. Below here, the next targets would be mid-November lows at $1,934, ahead of $1,838, and the measured target of the H&S pattern at $1,851.

A bullish reversal from current levels would have to breach the $2,000 level to ease negative pressure and shift the pair’s focus towards $2,035 and $2,075.