EUR/USD soars sharply and looms around 1.1000 post-ECB’s hawkish hold

• EUR/USD is gaining more than 0.90% on the day after the ECB’s monetary policy decision.
• ECB’s President Lagarde stated no rate cuts were discussed by the Governing Council.
• Divergence in monetary policy favors EUR/USD upside in the near term.

The EUR/USD rallies in the North American session as the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged and pushed back against easing monetary policy next year. That and the Federal Reserve’s dovish hold on Wednesday sponsored a leg-up in the pair. At the time of writing, the major trades at 1.0984 after bouncing from the day’s low of 1.0869.

President’s Lagarde hawkish message was heard by traders, which cut bets on ECB’s rate cuts

On Thursday, the ECB kept rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 4%, the current level for the second straight meeting, and began discussing an exit of the PEPP buying-bond program, which would start after the first half of 2024. Euro (EUR) holders cheered the central bank’s decision, as shown by the EUR/USD reaction, rallying sharply towards 1.0990, unable to reach the 1.1000 figure.

Consequently, traders cut bets on ECB rate cuts for 2024, as the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde said there were no discussions about easing monetary policy. She added that rates could stay at current levels at least for the first half of 2024, brushing aside cut speculations.

Across the pond, United States (US) data paints a Goldilocks scenario as Retail Sales exceeded forecasts. At the same time, claims for unemployment for the last week were lower than expected and trailed the prior report.

In the meantime, market participants continued to digest the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward easing policy. US Treasury bond yields continued to plunge, undermining the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency’s performance against six rivals, has fallen close to 1%, at 101.88.

The Eurozone’s calendar will feature Flash PMIs and the Balance of Trade ahead of the week. In the US, Flash PMIs would be released along with Industrial Production, and the Fed Regional Bank would commence to reveal Manufacturing Indices.

EUR/USD Technical Levels