Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers despite upbeat US NFP data

• Silver price recovers US NFP-inspired losses as US Dollar turns volatile.
• All components of the US NFP such as: labor demand, jobless rate and labor cost were surprisingly upbeat.
• 10-year US Treasury yields cling to gains around 4.06%.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds after a sharp sell-off from $22.70 despite the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported an upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December. Number of jobs created in December were 216K, higher than the expectations of 170K and revised former reading of 173K.

The Unemployment Rate remains unchanged at 3.7% while market participants anticipated it higher at 3.8%. Wages are surprisingly accelerated to 4.1% as investors projected annual Average Hourly Earnings slowing to 3.9% against 4.0% growth earlier. Monthly wages grew at a steady pace of 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%.

Each parameter of the US NFP report has remained stronger than expectations, which has lightened bets in favour of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) from March. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, chances of a rate cut decision in March monetary policy meeting have dropped sharply to 51% from 62% after the release of the official US employment data.

The S&P500 is expected to open on a flat-to-negative note considering overnight futures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply after failing to sustain recovery to three-week high of 103.00 while 10-year US Treasury yields remain higher at 4.06%.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price has been in the bearish trajectory after a breakdown of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern formed on a four-hour scale. The Relative Strength index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that a bearish momentum is intact.

Silver four-hour chart