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- A Trump victory and permanent change in US political system would be overwhelmingly USD negative – Commerzbank
A Trump victory and permanent change in US political system would be overwhelmingly USD negative – Commerzbank
One of the topics that is likely to occupy us for much of 2024 is the US election. Would a second Donald Trump presidency be USD positive or negative? Economists at Commerzbank analyze the possible scenarios.
USD-supportive factors will predominate in the short term if Trump keeps his hands off the Fed
If Trump keeps his hands off the Fed and does not pursue a USD-weakening intervention policy, USD-supportive factors will prevail in the short term. Therefore, we will have to watch whether Trump makes credible statements on Fed independence and USD exchange rate policy during the election campaign.
At the same time, however, we need to keep an eye on whether a Trump victory could actually lead to a lasting change in the US political system, i.e. whether his policies would be relevant for more than four years. If the campaign makes such a scenario seem likely, a higher probability of a Trump victory would not necessarily lead to USD strength.
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