GBP/JPY backslides as Pound Sterling softens, UK data comes in mixed

• GBP/JPY slips back on Friday as Japanese Yen sees broad but light recovery.
• Markets are pivoting back into the Yen as UK data hits and misses.
• Up next: UK labor and wages figures next Tuesday, UK CPI Wednesday.

The GBP/JPY backslid on Friday, slipping back from the week’s peak bids near 186.17 as the Pound Sterling (GBP) broadly softens and markets bid up the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

Japan’s Current Account grew less than expected early Friday, printing growth of     ¥1,925.6 billion in net exports and imports through November, missing the market forecast of ¥2,385.1 billion and falling away unexpectedly from October’s ¥2,582.8 billion.

UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production mixed at multiple levels on Friday, with MoM Manufacturing Production rising slightly more than expected in November but missing annualized forecasts, while YoY Industrial Production contracted. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in better than expected, printing a 0.3% uptick in November versus the forecast 0.2% and rebounding from the previous month’s 0.3% contraction.

Japanese wages stunned markets with a steeper contraction in earnings this week, with real wages (Labor Cash Earnings growth less inflation) declining by 3% for the year ended November. Labor Cash Earnings also missed forecasts, printing a nearly-flat 0.2% against the market’s expected steady reading of 1.5%.

The UK’s BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales also missed the mark earlier in the week, showing similar-product Retail Sales grew by 1.9% for the year ended December, below the previous period’s 2.6%.

Despite Friday’s pullback for the GBP and moderate rebound in the JPY, the Pound Sterling remains in the green across the board of major currencies for the week, while the Yen remains mixed from Monday’s opening bids as the market heads into the closing bell for Friday.

GBP/JPY Technical Outlook

The GBP/JPY has softened back towards the 184.50 level on Friday, easing back from the week’s peak bids near 186.15 set on Thursday. The pair has gained steadily in 2024 trading and despite Friday’s soft pullback remains up 3.3% from January’s early bottom bids near 178.75.

January’s swing low saw the GBP/JPY take a firm bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) just below the 180.00 handle, and the pair remains firmly entrenched in a rough consolidation range on the daily candlesticks.

The Guppy has traded closely with the 50-day SMA since the current consolidation pattern began in late July, and the near-term target for bidders will be successfully cracking the hard technical barrier baked in near 188.00.

GBP/JPY Hourly Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Technical Levels