GBP/USD holds above 1.2700 ahead of UK, US PMI data

• GBP/USD gains ground near 1.2713 amid the risk-on mood. 
• The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at its February 1 meeting. 
• Investors have become less convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the interest rate in March.

The GBP/USD pair holds above the 1.2700 psychological mark during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The rebound of the major pair is supported by an improved risk appetite. Investors will keep an eye on the preliminary UK S&P Global PMI for January on Wednesday, which is expected to remain upbeat. At press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2713, gaining 0.04% on the day. 

The restrictive monetary policy stance of the Bank of England provides some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP). All 70 economists who participated in the Reuters poll said that they anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) to hold the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at its policy meeting on February 1. Nonetheless, the BoE is expected to cut the rate to 5% in Q2 of 2024 as inflation is projected to drop below the target, faster than the Q3 cut from the December poll. 

Ahead of the BoE key event, the preliminary UK S&P Global PMI for January will be released on Wednesday. The Manufacturing PMI is estimated to improve to 46.7 from 46.2, while the Services PMI is projected to ease to 53.2 from 53.4. Finally, the Composite PMI is expected to show an increase of 52.2. 

On the other hand, the markets have become less convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the interest rate in March after robust US economic data last week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market has priced in a 42% chance of a rate cut at the March meeting.

However, two key events this week, including US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE), might determine at least which way the central bank policymakers could lean on policy. The weaker-than-expected data might weigh on the US Dollar (USD). 

Market participants will focus on the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for January, due on Tuesday. The attention will shift to the UK and US PMI reports on Wednesday. Traders will take cues from these figures and find trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.