European stocks test higher ground on Thursday after ECB rate call

• European shares rose with tech stocks leading the charge.
• ECB keeps rates unchanged, but dovish tone strikes at rate markets.
• EU data weakness suggests worsening business confidence.

European equities saw moderate gains on Thursday after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish hold on interest rates saw investor risk sentiment improve on increased hopes of rate cuts heading into the middle of 2024.

ECB Press Conference: Lagarde explains decision to keep rates steady, speaks on policy outlook

The ECB held rates as markets broadly expected, with ECB President Christine Lagarde stating that it was far too early in the disinflation cycle to begin discussing rate cuts, but the ECB head did note that inflationary pressures on several fronts are beginning to ease, causing markets to step higher and European money markets to reprice bets on how soon and how deep the ECB would begin cutting.

European swaps are now pricing in 50 basis points of rate cuts from the ECB by June, with a total 150 basis points through the end of 2024, flaunting ECB President Lagarde’s recent comments that overeager market bets on rate cuts would make it more difficult for the ECB to normalize policy. Markets are currently pricing in a 60% chance of the first rate cut coming as soon the April ECB rate meeting.

Germany’s IFO Business Climate unexpectedly declined to a 15-month low in January, printing at 85.2 versus the forecast 86.7 and falling back from the previous month’s 86.3 (revised from 86.4). The Business Expectations survey also declined to 83.5 compared to the expected 84.8 and the previous month’s 84.2 (also revised from 84.3).

The German DAX index rose by a scant 0.1%, climbing 17 points to close at €16,906.92, with France’s CAC40 rising 8.56 points to close at €7,464.20, up 0.11%.

The pan-European STOXX6090 major equity index climbed nearly a third of a percent on Thursday, rising 1.44 points to end the day at €478.53, while London’s FTSE index rose 2.06 points to end the day at £7,529.73, in the green by a scant 0.03%.

DAX Technical Outlook

Germany’s DAX index continues to pin into near-term highs, climbing back over the €16,900.00 handle and cycling the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near €16,650.00.

The DAX is well-bid on the daily candles, bolstered by the 50-day SMA rising through €16,400.00 with the long-term 200-day SMA rotating into a bullish twist just below the 200-day SMA.

The DAX is up over 15% from last October’s bottom bids near €14,618.00.

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