USD/JPY gains ground on risk-off mood ahead of FOMC minutes, improves to near 150.30

• USD/JPY extends gains on risk-off sentiment ahead of FOMC minutes.
• The US Fed is expected to avoid any rate cut in March and May.
• Japan’s official Atsushi Mimura stated government communicates with other countries regarding FX intervention.

USD/JPY strengthens for the third consecutive trading day, supported by a stronger US Dollar (USD). This uptrend can be attributed to market sentiment, which is biased towards the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) refraining from implementing any rate cuts in the upcoming meetings in March and May. This sentiment has been reinforced by stronger data on consumer and producer prices released last week. The USD/JPY pair trades higher around 150.30 during the early European session on Tuesday.

ANZ has forecasted that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could commence a rate-cutting cycle starting from July in mid-summer. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 53% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by the US Fed in the June meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the value of the US Dollar against six other major currencies, ends its four-day losing streak. The DXY trades higher around 104.30, with 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons standing at 4.64% and 4.29%, respectively, at the time of writing.

On the other side, Japanese Finance Ministry official Atsushi Mimura stated on Tuesday that the government "is continually communicating and coordinating with other countries regarding FX intervention." He emphasized the importance of maintaining safety and securing liquidity in FX reserves management. Mimura mentioned that the government can sell assets such as savings and foreign bonds in FX reserves when intervention is deemed necessary.

Moreover, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki remarked that while a weak Yen has both advantages and disadvantages, he expressed greater concern about the negative implications of a weak currency. In an earlier interview, Suzuki also noted, "The Bank of Japan (BoJ) holds jurisdiction over monetary policy. But there will come a time when interest rates rise."

Market participants will likely observe the Trade Balance data with Import and Export figures for January on Wednesday. Furthermore, the focus will shift to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting minutes.