USD/CAD Price Analysis: Threatening to break below key trendline

• Negative comments from Chairman Powell have weakened the US Dollar. 
• USD/CAD is selling-off to a key trendline and is threatening to break below it.
• The MACD indicator, useful in a range bound market, is issuing a sell signal. 

The USD/CAD is down a tenth of a percent on Thursday in line with widespread US Dollar (USD) weakness, as traders digest Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments to US lawmakers on the Wednesday, during the first day of his testimony to Congress. 

The Greenback sold-off steeply on Wednesday after Powell affirmed that the Fed was planning to cut interest rates subject to inflation falling closer to target. USD/CAD was particularly hit as the Fed’s stance contrasts with the hawkish hold adopted by the Bank of Canada (BoC) at its last meeting. 

The technical picture on the daily chart of USD/CAD is showing some interesting developments in line with the fundamentals. 

US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: Daily chart

The chart above shows how the pair has been in a long sideways market since the end of 2022. 

The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is especially useful to analyze range bound asset prices, as it tends to accurately mirror and predict the key turning points of prices oscillating in a range. This can be seen to be the case in the chart above. 

More recently USD/CAD has been rising up in the range since the turn at the end of 2023. Although it has not yet reached the range highs, the MACD has just crossed below the signal line, giving a sell signal and suggesting the trend may be about to change. The steep sell-off on Wednesday adds credence to the idea the market may be reversing. 

US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: Daily chart

Price has fallen to the level of a key trendline for the 2024 rally. This is likely to be an important make-or-break support zone for the pair. The strength of the preceding day’s sell-off adds evidence to the possibility price could penetrate the trendline and begin moving south. 

A decisive break below the trendline – characterized by a long red candle that closes well below the trendline and near its low of the day, for example – would be the confirmation signal of a reversal of the 2024 uptrend and a probable new phase of weakness, targeting the range lows in lower 1.30s. If the pair prints three down days in a row and also breaks below the trendline that would be another confirmation of a “decisive break”. 

US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: Daily chart

The possible evolution of a bearish Wedge price pattern in the move higher, as shown on the chart above, is another potentially negative motif. Such a pattern recommends a breakdown to a target equal to its widest point, extrapolated from the breakout point lower. This gives a target of roughly 1.3350. 

In the event that the trendline manages to hold, however, the pair may continue its slow upside grind, targeting the top of the wedge at roughly 1.3640 initially, and on a breakout higher, the top of the long-term range at 1.3900.