EUR/USD Price Analysis: Still in a short-term uptrend

• EUR/USD is in a short-term uptrend since rising up from the February lows in the 1.06s. 
• The pair is currently undergoing a pullback within that uptrend. 
• If it finds a floor, it will likely consolidate and then resume rallying. 

EUR/USD has corrected back from its 1.0981 peak, established on Friday, to trade in the 1.0920s at the time of publication. 

Despite the correction, the pair remains in a short-term uptrend with peaks and troughs making consistently higher highs and higher lows on the 4-hour chart. This overall still favors bullish bets. 

Euro vs US Dollar: 4-hour chart

The EUR/USD pair completed what is probably a three-wave ABC pattern or “Measured Move” at Friday’s highs and this, combined with the exit from overbought seen on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a pullback was underway. 

It is not yet clear whether this pullback has completed. It is still possible it could correct further, perhaps, to as low as support in the 1.0860s. However, given the uptrend bias, price will probably eventually find a floor, recover and resume climbing. 

A short-term reversal pattern such as a bullish candlestick reversal pattern would provide a clue the uptrend was restarting. 

A break above the 1.0981 high of March 8 would provide a strong signal the bull trend was evolving into a new wave of buying. The tough resistance expected at 1.1000, however, could see such an up move short-lived unless supported by compelling fundamentals. At 1.1000 a battle is likely to ensue between bulls and bears, with more volatility. 

A clear and decisive break above 1.1000, however, would open the gates to further gains towards the next key resistance level at 1.1139, the December 2023 high. Such a decisive break would be characterized by a long green bar breaking clearly above the level and closing near its high or three green bars in a row, breaking through the level. 

Alternatively, a break below 1.0850, would indicate the short-term trend had reversed and momentum was now moving south, favoring bears instead.