GBP/USD trades with a mild negative near 1.2640, eyes on US NFP data, geopolitical risks

• GBP/USD trades with mild losses near 1.2640 on the USD’s recovery on Friday.
• The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose last week to the highest since January.
• Investors expect the BoE to cut the rates in June as UK inflation is slowing consistently.

The GBP/USD pair trades with a mild negative around 1.2640 bias on Friday during the early Asian session. The modest rebound of the US Dollar (USD) to 104.20 amid the cautious mood provides some support to the major pair. Investors will closely watch the highly-anticipated US Non-farm Payrolls on Friday, along with the Unemployment Rate and speeches by Fed’s Musalem, Kugler, Barkin, and Bowman.

The US Initial Jobless Claims went up to a two-month high last week. The Labor Department on Thursday revealed that The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended March 30 rose by 9,000 to 221,000 from the previous week of 212,000, below the market consensus of 214,000. Additionally, the Continuing Claims declined by 19K to 1.791M in the week ended March 23. The Greenback dropped below the 104.00 support level following the downbeat US economic data. However, the safe-haven USD pares losses as the fear of Iran's attack on Israel is driving the market.

According to the Express, the CIA has reportedly warned Israel that Iran will attack within the next 48 hours. This warning comes after Israel carried out an attack on Tehran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing two Iranian military leaders. The escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East might boost the US dollar and act as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.

On the other hand, the Pound Sterling (GBP) will be influenced by market forecasts for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. Investors anticipate the UK central bank to lower its borrowing costs in June as UK inflation is slowing consistently. The BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in recent weeks that, due to further encouraging signs that inflation is cooling, the UK economy is moving towards the point where the central bank can begin cutting interest rates.