US Dollar Index (DXY) hits over two-month low around 106.20, seems vulnerable below 100-day SMA

• USD attracts fresh supply on Monday and drops to over a two-month low during the Asian session. 
• Concerns about US consumer health and growth outlook continue to weigh heavily on Greenback.
• Hawkish Fed expectations warrant caution for the USD bears ahead of the US PCE data on Friday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, kicks off the new week on a downbeat note and drops to its lowest level since December 10 during the Asian session. The index is currently placed around the 106.25 area, with bears looking to build on weakness below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Against the backdrop of the disappointing release of US Retail Sales figures, a disappointing sales forecast from Walmart raised doubts about US consumer health. Adding to this, data released on Friday fueled worries about the US growth outlook amid concerns that US President Donald Trump's policy moves would further undermine consumer spending. This turns out to be a key factor weighing on the buck. 

The S&P Global's flash US Composite PMI dropped to 50.4 in February, from 52.7 in January, pointing to a weaker expansion in overall business activity across the private sector. Separately, the University of Michigan reported that its US Consumer Sentiment Index declined more than expected, to a 15-month low level of 64.7 in February. Meanwhile, households saw inflation over the next year surging to 4.3%. 

Moreover, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials remain wary of future interest rate cuts amid sticky inflation and the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's protectionist policies. This might hold back the USD bears from placing fresh bearish bets and positioning for further losses. Investors might also opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.