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Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 01-10-2012
The euro gained from a three-week low versus the dollar as a U.S. manufacturing gauge unexpectedly rose and Spain’s latest budget and banking measures spurred bets the euro region is moving closer to containing its debt crisis. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. index of U.S. manufacturing rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. A Bloomberg survey projected a reading of 49.7 for September. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.
The 17-member currency strengthened versus all of its 16 most-traded peers after Moody’s Investors Service said Spain’s bank recapitalization is positive for the nation’s credit rating.
A gauge of European manufacturing based on a survey of purchasing managers was 46.1, above an initial estimate of 46 on Sept. 20, Markit said today. The index has held for 14 months below 50, indicating contraction.
Australia’s dollar touched the lowest level in more than a year against its New Zealand counterpart before the larger nation’s Reserve Bank holds a policy meeting tomorrow.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the currency against those of six U.S. trading partners, fell 0.2 percent to 79.814 after rising earlier to 80.147, the highest since Sept. 11.
Bernanke said Fed policy makers “expect that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economy strengthens.” The Fed’s forecast to hold the main interest rate near zero until at least mid-2015 “doesn’t mean that we expect the economy to be weak through” that year, he said in the text of a speech in Indianapolis.
Expect Inflation To Remain Low For Foreseeable Future
Economy Has Not Been Growing Enough To Help Jobs Figure
Economy Has Enjoyed Price Stability For Some Time
Monetary Policy Not A Cure-All, But Can Help
Expect To Keep Rates Low Even After Economy Strengthens
Tax Reform, Fiscal Changes Would Also Help Economy
Policy Steps Will Likely Help Reduce Federal Debt
Expect Inflation To Remain Low For Foreseeable Future
Economy Has Not Been Growing Enough To Help Jobs Figure
Economy Has Enjoyed Price Stability For Some Time
Monetary Policy Not A Cure-All, But Can Help
Expect To Keep Rates Low Even After Economy Strengthens
Tax Reform, Fiscal Changes Would Also Help Economy
Policy Steps Will Likely Help Reduce Federal Debt
Far Too Many People Lack Jobs Right Now
EUR/USD $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y77.25, Y77.50, Y78.00
GBP/USD $1.6195, $1.6210
EUR/GBP stg0.7940
USD/СHF Chf0.9375
AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0400
Have full confidence in the determination of the Government of Spain
Budget deficit targets in Spain are ambitious but realistic
Fiscal consolidation in Spain should continue
The Commission will review the plans to recapitalize banks during the 2 months
Banking reform in Spain is on the right course
Data
00:00 China Bank holiday -
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 49.2 50.0 49.8
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y August +3.2% +4.1% +3.5%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI September 46.7 47.6 43.6
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 42.6 42.6 42.7
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 47.3 47.3 47.4
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 46.0 46.0 46.1
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing September 49.5 49.5 48.4
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 0.9 0.7 -0.3
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 47.3 49.3 47.7
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate August 11.3% 11.4% 11.4%
The euro rose to a three-week low against the dollar as the fact that the results of stress tests of the banking system in Spain will build the confidence, and increased confidence that the debt crisis in the eurozone is close to resolution.
The single currency strengthened against all but one of its 16 major counterparts after ratings agency Moody said that the recapitalization of banks in Spain is positive for the country's credit rating.
The euro rose even after data showed that business activity in the manufacturing sector continued to decline in September, and the unemployment rate reached its highest level in history.
Sensor output based on a survey of purchasing managers was 46.1, higher than the initial estimate of 46. Unemployment was 11.4% in August, unchanged compared with June and July.
Pound weakened as a report showed that UK manufacturing index fell in September more than economists forecast.
Sterling fell to $ 1.6139 after reaching a high of $ 1.6109, which is the lowest level since September 13.
The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against six currencies, fell 0.1% to 79.820.
The Australian dollar touched its lowest level in a year against the New Zealand dollar in anticipation of tomorrow's meeting of the RBNZ.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose sharply, peaking at $ 1.2910
GBP / USD: pair dropped to $ 1.6107, but then recovered to $ 1.6166, and is now trading at a value of $ 1.6132
USD / JPY: pair dropped to Y77.77, but then he grew up and is now trading at around Y78
At 12:30 GMT in Canada will index of commodity prices for August. At 13:00 GMT the U.S. will provide an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in September, at 14:00 GMT - ISM manufacturing index for September. At 16:00 GMT the U.S. will make a speech the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2990/300, $1.2970/80, $1.2920/25
Bids $1.2865/60, $1.2845/35, $1.2740
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0490/00, $1.0480, $1.0450, $1.0430, $1.0395/00
Bids $1.0330/20, $1.0300, $1.0250, $1.0200
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/25, $1.6200/10, $1.6165/70
Bids $1.6085/80, $1.6060/50, $1.6030/20, $1.6000, $1.5960/50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8150, stg0.8070/80, stg0.8045/50, stg0.8000/15
Bids stg0.7943, stg0.7885/80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.50, Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.80
Bids Y100.20, Y99.75, Y99.65/60, Y99.55/50, Y99.20, Y99.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y78.50, Y78.40, Y78.20
Bids Y77.70, Y77.40/35, Y77.20, Y77.15/10
EUR/USD $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y77.25, Y77.50, Y78.00
GBP/USD $1.6195(large), $1.6210
EUR/GBP stg0.7940
USD/СHF Chf0.9375
AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0400
Data:
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 49.2 50.0 49.8
The euro rose against the dollar during the Asian session, when the Japanese were published ambiguous indicators and PMI in the manufacturing sector in China, which once again failed to overcome the mark of 50 and reflect the reduction in the sector.
The yen rose against the dollar despite the fact that the consumer sentiment index, calculated by the Bank of Japan, fell in July and September, indicating that the recovery of the Japanese economy stalled amid the slowdown in overseas economies. This is shown by a report released on Monday the Bank of Japan.
According to the data, the index of consumer sentiment central bank of Japan for the period fell to -43.1 vs. -39.5 in April-June.
This means that for the first four quarters deteriorated. The index is calculated by subtracting the number of consumers who say the deteriorating economic situation in comparison with the same period the previous year, the share of those who believe that the situation has improved.
Data on consumer sentiment meet quarterly Tankan index of the central bank, which points to a more pessimistic mood among Japanese business community: sentiment index of large Japanese manufacturers in the 3rd quarter fell to -3 vs. -1 in the 2nd quarter.
The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar under pressure from a number of factors: lower expectations of future RBA rate decision (many in the market predict its decline by 25 basis points), weak Chinese PMI and the overall risk aversion amid concerns about the debt crisis in Europe .
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.2864
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6107.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y77.78.
On Monday at 07:00 GMT in the UK will house price index from HBOS in September. At 07:15 GMT Spain will report on the index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At the same time, Switzerland will announce the change in real retail sales for August. At 07:30 GMT Switzerland is to publish an index of SVME PMI for September. At 07:45 GMT in Italy, there are data on the index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At 07:50 GMT France will provide an index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At 07:55 GMT Germany is to publish an index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At 08:00 GMT Eurozone release index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At 08:30 GMT the UK account for the amount of net lending to individuals in August. At the same time become known index for the manufacturing PMI for September and the data on the number of applications approved for a mortgage loan in August. At 09:00 GMT Eurozone will publish data on the unemployment rate for August. At 12:30 GMT in Canada will index of commodity prices for August. At 13:00 GMT the U.S. will provide an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in September, at 14:00 GMT - ISM manufacturing index for September. At 16:00 GMT the U.S. will make a speech the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams
00:00 China Bank holiday -
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 49.2 50.0 49.8
02:00 China Leading Index August 98.8
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y August +3.2% +4.1%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI September 46.7 47.6
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 42.6 42.6
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 47.3 47.3
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 46.0 46.0
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing September 49.5 49.5
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 0.9 0.7
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 47.3 49.3
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate August 11.3% 11.4%
12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index August +0.9% +1.4%
12:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m August -0.5% +0.2%
13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 51.5 51.5
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing September 49.6 50.0
14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m August -0.9% +0.6%
16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
16:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -
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