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Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 02-01-2014
Euro exchange rate dropped significantly against the dollar , despite the positive data on manufacturing activity in Germany and the euro area. Growth of the manufacturing sector lasted eurozone in December, according to preliminary estimates published last month, showed on Thursday the final results of a study Markit Economics. Purchasing Managers Index rose for the third month in a row to a level of 52.7 in December. Value was unchanged from the preliminary estimate was higher than November's 51.6 value .
In addition, the course of trade affected U.S. data . They showed that business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector improved at the fastest pace since January. Corresponding PMI rose to 55.0 in December compared with 54.7 in November and was higher than the preliminary estimate of 54.4 .
Meanwhile, another report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), showed that in December manufacturing activity in the U.S. fell slightly less than economists' expectations . PMI index for the U.S. manufacturing declined this month to 57.0 vs. 57.3 in November. Note that the last reduction was weaker than economists' forecasts , which are expected to decline to 56.8 .
Not unimportant as were data on the number of applications for benefits . As it became known , the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits , a measure of layoffs, reduced by 2000 and totaled a seasonally adjusted 339,000 in the week ended December 28. Economists had expected 334,000 initial claims per week. The number of applications from the previous week was revised to 341,000 from 338,000 .
The British pound has fallen against the dollar , which was associated with the publication of the index of manufacturing activity , which came out weaker than expected . Recovery of production in the UK continued to the end of 2013 , data showed on Thursday surveys Markit Economics.
However, the purchasing managers' index from Markit / Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply fell to 57.3 in December from November's 33 -month high of 58.1 . Value in November was revised from 58.4 . A reading above 50 indicates an increase in activity.
The pace of expansion in output and new orders remained among the highest in the 22- year history of the survey. As a result, the pace of job growth were second in strength over the past two and a half years . On the price front, the average purchase and sale prices rose at a faster pace in December.
The yen has risen sharply against the U.S. dollar . Experts note that the main driver for the yen became the yield on U.S. assets , which reached multi-year highs above 3.0 % , with the pullback of U.S. stock indices .
In addition, the course of trade rumors affect the Bank of Japan will continue its unprecedented stimulus program , to support the economic strategy of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe . In general, the Japanese currency has fallen in the past year by 16% against a basket of nine other currencies. Hedge funds and other large speculators increased bets on a further fall in the yen against the dollar to a maximum value since July 2007.
EUR/USD $1.3700
USD/JPY Y104.00
AUD/USD $0.8800, $0.8950, $0.9000
NZD/USD $0.8180, $0.8170, $0.8165, $0.8160
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3850/60, $1.3830, $1.3810-20, $1.3775/85, $1.3740/50
Bids $1.3700, $1.3650
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9000, $0.8985/90, $0.8958/60, $0.8953/55
Bids $0.8825/20, $0.8800
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6690/700, $1.6650, $1.6615/20, $1.6580/85
Bids $1.6500, $1.6485/75, $1.6450/45, $1.6410/00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8467, stg0.8435/40, stg0.8415/20, Stg0.8400/05, stg0.8370/80
Bids stg0.8285/75, stg0.8260/50, stg0.8250, stg0.8220, stg0.8205/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y106.00, Y105.80, Y105.45/50
Bids Y105.25/20, Y105.10/00, Y104.50, Y104.20, Y104.00, Y103.80/75
EUR/JPY
Offers Y147.00, Y146.50, Y146.00, Y145.70/80, Y145.30/35
Bids Y144.45/35, Y144.20, Y144.00, Y143.85/80, Y143.60/50
00:00 China Bank holiday
00:00 Japan Bank holiday
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) December 50.5 50.5 50.5
05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y December -1.9% -4.0%
The yen remained lower after its biggest annual decline since 1979 amid prospects the Bank of Japan will continue unprecedented stimulus measures to support the economy and end more than a decade of deflation.
Japan’s currency extended losses as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, in an interview published yesterday in Yomiuri newspaper, that policy makers will continue stimulus until inflation stabilizes at 2 percent. Kuroda said achieving 2 percent inflation in two years is the BOJ’s goal, according to the Yomiuri article. The central bank won’t necessarily end or scale back its stimulus program in two years, he said, according to the interview. Monetary policy in Japan is diverging from the U.S., where the Federal Reserve is expected to end bond purchases this year.
The euro held an annual gain against the dollar before a report today that economists estimate will show a gauge of factory output in the common-currency region climbed to a 31-month high in December. That would confirm the initial reading published by Markit on Dec. 16.
The Australian dollar earlier traded lower from its year-end close after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics fell to 50.5 last month from 50.8 in November, indicating slower expansion. Government figures released yesterday showed a separate index for factory output fell for the first time in six months to match an August reading of 51.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3740-70
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6600
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y105.40
Focus today will be on EZ mfg PMI releases (starting with Spain at 0813GMT), with the UK release coming at 0928GMT. US weekly jobless claims to follow at 1330GMT along with US PMI and ISM at 1358GMT/1500GMT respectively.
00:00 China Bank holiday
00:00 Japan Bank holiday
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) December 50.5 50.5
05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y December -1.9%
06:00 Switzerland Bank holiday
08:48 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) December 47.1 47.1
08:53 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) December 54.2 54.2
08:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) December 52.7 52.7
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing December 58.4 58.3
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims December 338 334
14:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) December 54.4 54.4
15:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m November +0.8% +0.7%
15:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing December 57.3 56.8
21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories December +0.5
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