Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 02-02-2018

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $7.0 billion or 2.9 percent to $249.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 1.7 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months,led the increase, $6.0 billion or 7.4 percent to $87.2 billion.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, up seven of the last eight months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $246.8 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent November increase. Fabricated metal products, also up seven of the last eight months, led the increase, $0.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $33.5 billion.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.74, following an 11-cent gain in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 75 cents, or 2.9 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents to $22.34 in January.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.
In January, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.7 million, changed little over the month.

UK construction companies reported a subdued start to 2018, with total industry activity barely rising. A return to contraction in residential building activity was accompanied by near-stagnant commercial and civil engineering activity.

New orders declined, linked by many companies to market uncertainty. On a more positive note, confidence towards future growth prospects improved, with many firms anticipating an increase in new project wins later in the year. Meanwhile, intense cost pressures continued across the UK construction sector.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index posted 50.2 in January, down from 52.2 in December. The figure was just above the neutral 50.0 no-change mark, thereby signalling a fractional rate of growth that was the weakest for four months.

In December 2017, compared with November 2017, industrial producer prices rose by 0.2% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.1% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In November 2017, prices increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU28. In December 2017, compared with December 2016, industrial producer prices rose by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU28. The average industrial producer prices for the year 2017, compared with 2016, increased by 3.1% in the euro area and by 3.4% in the EU28.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2607 (2000)

$1.2583 (2410)

$1.2546 (1654)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2505

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2454 (959)

$1.2422 (1231)

$1.2384 (1030)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 141559 contracts (according to data from February, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1850 (7036);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4384 (954)

$1.4359 (262)

$1.4325 (748)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4252

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4203 (109)

$1.4147 (216)

$1.4112 (455)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 47199 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3462);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 43865 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3038);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.93 versus 0.95 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 1

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Final demand (excl. Exports):

Rose 0.6% in the december quarter 2017.

Mainly due to rises in the prices received for petroleum refining and petroleum fuel manufacturing (+11.9%), heavy and civil engineering construction (+0.7%) and building construction (+0.4%).

Partly offset by falls in the prices received for sugar and confectionery manufacturing (-3.9%), tobacco product manufacturing (-3.8%) and sheep, beef cattle and grain farming; and dairy cattle farming (-3.6%).

Rose 1.7% through the year to the december quarter 2017.

Intermediate demand:

Rose 1.2% in the december quarter 2017.

Mainly due to rises in the prices received for electricity, gas and water supply (+2.9%), petroleum refining and petroleum fuel manufacturing (+11.3%) and oil and gas extraction (+14.5%).

Partly offset by falls in the prices received for textile, leather, clothing and footwear manufacturing (-1.5%), motor vehicle and part manufacturing (-1.9%) and sugar and confectionery manufacturing (-7.6%).

Rose 3.1% through the year to the december quarter 2017.