Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 03-06-2014

EUR/USD $1,3626 +0,21%

GBP/USD $1,6748 +0,01%

USD/CHF Chf0,8962 -0,23%

USD/JPY Y102,53 +0,16%

EUR/JPY Y139,71 +0,37%

GBP/JPY Y171,70 +0,16%

AUD/USD $0,9265 +0,27%

NZD/USD $0,8432 -0,20%

USD/CAD C$1,0907 +0,09%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after the release of factory orders in the U.S. The U.S. factory orders climbed 0.7% in April, beating expectations for 0.6% increase, after a 1.1% gain in March.

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar despite the weaker-than-expected inflation data in the Eurozone. Eurozone’s inflation increased 0.5% in May, after a 0.7% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.7% rise. Inflation target by the European Central Bank (ECB) is 2%.

The unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell to 11.7% in April from 11.8% in March. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate remains unchanged.

The number of unemployed people in Spain decreased by 111,900 in May, after a 111,600 decline in April. Analysts had forecasted a 112,300 drop.

Market participants expect the European Central Bank will add further stimulus measures on Thursday. Investors are awaiting the ECB will cut interest rates and announce measures to boost lending to smaller businesses.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The U.K. construction purchasing managers' index declined to 60.0 in May, from 60.8 in April. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 61.2.

Nationwide house price index for the U.K. climbed 0.7% in May, meeting analysts’ expectations, after a 1.2% rise in April. On a yearly basis, Nationwide house price index for the U.K. rose 11.1% in May, after a 10.9% increase in April. Analysts had expected the index remains unchanged.

In the overnight trading session, the New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S dollar due to speculation New Zealand’s currency will benefit along with the Australian dollar. Market participants are awaiting the release of the Australian economic growth tomorrow. Australia’s economy should expand 1.1% in the first quarter.

In the absence of any major economic reports, investors also remain concerned about the impact of lower dairy prices on the economy and the interest rate.

In the day trading session, the kiwi dropped against the U.S. dollar.

The Australian dollar climbed against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, but lost a part of its gains in the day trading session. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5% as expected. The RBA decided to continue accommodative monetary policy. Accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and to economic growth.

Retail sales in Australia increased 0.2% in April, missing expectations of a 0.3% gain in March, after a 0.1% rise in March.

Australia’s current account deficit declined to AUD5.67 billion in the first quarter from AUD11.7 billion the previous quarter. The deficit of the previous quarter was revised down to AUD11.7 billion from a deficit of AUD10.1 billion. Analysts had expected a reduction of the deficit to AUD7.0 billion.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Labour cash earning in Japan rose 0.9% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.6% gain, after a 0.7% increase in March.

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its interest rate decision. Interest rate remained unchanged at a record low 2.5%. Market participants had expected this decision.

The RBA decided to continue accommodative monetary policy. Accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and to economic growth.

The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens said that exports were rising “strongly” and the Australian dollar remained strong by historical standards.

Inflation target by the RBA is 2-3% over the next two years.

Australia’s central bank has reduced its interest rate by a cumulative 225 basis points since November 2011.

EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y101.10, Y101.50, Y102.65, Y103.00

USD/CAD Cad1.0850, Cad1.0875

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9240, $0.9245

EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8075

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:00    Australia                Retail Sales Y/Y                                                                   April        +5.7%               +5.7%

01:00    China                    Non-Manufacturing PMI                                                      May          54.8                  55.5

01:30    Australia                Retail sales (MoM)                                                               April        +0.1%  +0.3%   +0.2%

01:30    Australia                Current Account, bln                                                         Quarter I  -10.1     -7.1        -5.7

01:30    Japan                    Labor Cash Earnings, YoY                                                  April        +0.7%  +0.6%   +0.9%

01:45    China                    HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally)                                        May         49.7      49.7       49.4

04:30    Australia                Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate                  2.50%   2.50%    2.50%

04:30    Australia                RBA Rate Statement                                                  

06:00    United Kingdom     Nationwide house price index                                              May         +1.2%  +0.7%   +0.7%

06:00    United Kingdom     Nationwide house price index, y/y                                       May       +10.9    +10.9% +11.1%

08:30    United Kingdom     PMI Construction                                                                May          60.8      61.2       60.0

09:00    Eurozone               Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary)                                       May         +0.7%  +0.7%   +0.5%

09:00    Eurozone               Unemployment Rate                                                           April         11.8%   11.8%    11.7%

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure against the most major currencies ahead of the release of factory orders in the U.S. The U.S. factory orders should climb 0.6% in April, after a 1.1% gain in March.

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar despite the weaker-than-expected inflation data in the Eurozone. Eurozone’s inflation increased 0.5% in May, after a 0.7% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.7% rise. Inflation target by the European Central Bank (ECB) is 2%.

The unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell to 11.7% in April from 11.8% in March. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate remains unchanged.

The number of unemployed people in Spain decreased by 111,900 in May, after a 111,600 decline in April. Analysts had forecasted a 112,300 drop.

Market participants expect the European Central Bank will add further stimulus measures on Thursday. Investors are awaiting the ECB will cut interest rates and announce measures to boost lending to smaller businesses.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The U.K. construction purchasing managers' index declined to 60.0 in May, from 60.8 in April. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 61.2.

Nationwide house price index for the U.K. climbed 0.7% in May, meeting analysts’ expectations, after a 1.2% rise in April. On a yearly basis, Nationwide house price index for the U.K. rose 11.1% in May, after a 10.9% increase in April. Analysts had expected the index remains unchanged.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3644

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00    U.S.     Factory Orders April      +1.1%  +0.6%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3695/700, $1.3688, $1.3670/80, $1.3655, $1.3615-30

Bids $1.3585/80, $1.3550

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6860, $1.6835/40

Bids $1.6725, $1.6690

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9350, $0.9330, $0.9300

Bids $0.9235/30, $0.9220, $0.9210/00, $0.9150

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.50, Y140.00, Y139.75/80, Y139.45/50

Bids  Y139.00, Y138.85/80, Y138.50, Y138.20

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.50

Bids Y102.00, Y101.60, Y101.05/00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160/65

Bids  stg0.8080, stg0.8050

Eurozone’s inflation increased 0.5% in May, after a 0.7% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.7% rise. Inflation target by the European Central Bank (ECB) is 2%.

German inflation was released yesterday. Inflation in Germany also declined. German preliminary consumer price index fell 0.1% in May, after a decline of 0.2% in April. Analysts had expected a 0.1% rise. On a yearly basis, German preliminary consumer price index rose 0.9% in May, after a 1.3% gain in April. Analysts had forecasted a 1.1% increase.

All these figures are feeding speculation the European Central Bank will add further stimulus measures on Thursday. Investors are awaiting the ECB will cut interest rates and announce measures to boost lending to smaller businesses.

The unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell to 11.7% in April from 11.8% in March. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate remains unchanged.

EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y101.10, Y101.50, Y102.65, Y103.00

USD/CAD Cad1.0850, Cad1.0875

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9240, $0.9245

EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8075

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:00    Australia                Retail Sales Y/Y                                                                   April        +5.7%               +5.7%

01:00    China                    Non-Manufacturing PMI                                                      May          54.8                  55.5

01:30    Australia                Retail sales (MoM)                                                               April        +0.1%  +0.3%   +0.2%

01:30    Australia                Current Account, bln                                                         Quarter I  -10.1     -7.1        -5.7

01:30    Japan                    Labor Cash Earnings, YoY                                                  April        +0.7%  +0.6%   +0.9%

01:45    China                    HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally)                                        May         49.7      49.7       49.4

04:30    Australia                Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate                  2.50%   2.50%    2.50%

04:30    Australia                RBA Rate Statement                                                   

06:00    United Kingdom     Nationwide house price index                                              May         +1.2%  +0.7%   +0.7%

06:00    United Kingdom     Nationwide house price index, y/y                                       May       +10.9    +10.9% +11.1%

08:30    United Kingdom     PMI Construction                                                                May          60.8      61.2       60.0

09:00    Eurozone               Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary)                                       May         +0.7%  +0.7%   +0.5%

09:00    Eurozone               Unemployment Rate                                                           April         11.8%   11.8%    11.7%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies due to the disappointing ISM manufacturing purchase managers’ index in the U.S. The Institute of Supply Management released its manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the U.S. The index dropped to 53.2 in May, from 54.9 in April. Analysts had expected a gain to 55.5.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S dollar due to speculation New Zealand’s currency will benefit along with the Australian dollar. Market participants are awaiting the release of the Australian economic growth tomorrow. Australia’s economy should expand 1.1% in the first quarter.

In the absence of any major economic reports in New Zealand, investors also remain concerned about the impact of lower dairy prices on the economy and the interest rate.

The Australian dollar climbed against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5% as expected. The RBA decided to continue accommodative monetary policy. Accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and to economic growth.

Earlier in the trading session, Australian retail sales were released. Retail sales in Australia increased 0.2% in April, missing expectations of a 0.3% gain in March, after a 0.1% rise in March.

Australia’s current account deficit declined to AUD5.67 billion in the first quarter from AUD11.7 billion the previous quarter. The deficit of the previous quarter was revised down to AUD11.7 billion from a deficit of AUD10.1 billion. Analysts had expected a reduction of the deficit to AUD7.0 billion.

The Japanese yen traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Labor cash earning in Japan rose 0.9% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.6% gain, after a 0.7% increase in March.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.3605

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

AUD/USD: the currency pair increased to $0.9268

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00    U.S.     Factory Orders April      +1.1%  +0.6%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3762 (3649)

$1.3722 (3513)

$1.3659 (771)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3604

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3573 (3756)

$1.3536 (4923)

$1.3474 (8745)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 56909 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (6024);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 77131 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3500 (8745);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.35 versus 1.31 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 2.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7000 (2741)

$1.6901 (2103)

$1.6802 (1309)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6745

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6697 (2601)

$1.6599 (2440)

$1.6500 (979)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 24582 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2741);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 26920 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2601);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 2.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.