Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 06-08-2013

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3125, $1.3150, , $1.3285

USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.10, Y99.60, Y100.00

EUR/JPY Y129.85

GBP/USD $1.5300

USD/CHF Chf0.9200

AUD/USD $0.8800, $0.9000, $0.9070

NZD/USD $0.7800

USD/CAD C$1.0370

AUD/CAD C$0.91, C$0.94

Data

01:30 Australia Trade Balance June 0.50 Revised From 0.67 0.81 0.60

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) July -1.8% -6.8%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter II +0.8% Revised From +0.1% +1.3% +2.4%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter II +2.6% +3.0% +5.1%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index June 110.7 108.0 107.0

05:00 Japan Coincident Index June 106.0 105.1 105.2

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index July +0.6% +0.3% +0.9%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y July +3.7% +4.3% +4.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) June 0.0% +0.7% +1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) June -2.3% +0.8% +1.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) June -0.8% +0.9% +1.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) June -2.9% +1.0% +2.0%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) June -0.5% Revised From -1.3% +1.1% +3.8%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) June -2.0% -0.3% +3.4%

Rate of the euro traded higher against the dollar, though retreated from earlier peak values. It should be noted that the Euro-currency support had submitted a report on Germany, which was much better than expected. As it became known, in June, the German promzakazy rose by 3.4% y / y vs. 2% y / y in May. Analysts had expected a contraction of 0.3%. In monthly terms, orders increased by 3.8% versus -0.5% previously forecast and +1%.

We also add that the cyclical improvement in the euro area data confirmed Italy's GDP in the second quarter, which showed a negative value. The Italian economy is still in recession, although the data on the dynamics of GDP for the II quarter are encouraging. Italian GDP for the period decreased by 0.2% qoq and 2% - in annualized, from the data of the national statistics institute ISTAT. At the same time, analysts expected a decline in GDP of 0.4% on the quarter and by 2.2% - year on year.

Italy's economy, "compressed" for the eighth consecutive quarter, although the decline in GDP was less than that predicted by experts, and less significant than in I quarter, when the economy shrank by 0.6% qoq.

Add that after the publication of the data market participants' attention shifted to the report on the U.S. trade balance for June and a voting member of the Fed's statement, Charles Evans.

Value of the pound has fallen significantly against the dollar, while offsetting the early growth. Note that the currency is reduced, even though the optimistic reports, which were released today. The Office for National Statistics reported on the results of June of the year, industrial output increased significantly, thereby exceeded the forecasts of experts, helped by recovery in the sector of mining and industrial production.

According to a report in the June monthly basis, the volume of industrial production increased by 1.1%, after three consecutive months of zero growth. It is worth noting that economists had forecast industrial production growth at only 0.7%. In addition, it was reported that production in the manufacturing industry increased 1.9% in June, fully offsetting the decline of 0.7% (revised from -0.8%), which was recorded in the previous month. This growth exceeded economists' forecast at 0.9%.

In annual terms, the volume of industrial production increased in June by 1.2%, which followed a 2.3% decline in the previous month. We also add that manufacturing output in June rose by 2%, partially offset by the decline of 2.9% recorded in May.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3295

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5392, and then decreased slightly to $ 1.5332

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y98.00 from Y98.60

At 12:30 GMT, Canada and the U.S. will report on its trade balance for June. At 14:00 GMT Britain will release data on the change in GDP from NIESR for July. At 14:00 GMT the United States will present a report on the level of vacancies and labor turnover in June. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will report on changes in the number of employees for the 2nd quarter, and the unemployment rate for the 2nd quarter.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3345/50, $1.3334, $1.3280/300, $1.3281

Bids $1.3235/30, $1.3220/10, $1.3205/190, $1.3180, $1.3165/50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5480, $1.5450/60, $1.5430/35, $1.5420, $1.5400

Bids $1.5353, $1.5330/20, $1.5300, $1.5280, $1.5250/40

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9100, $0.9050, $0.9035/40

Bids $0.8950, $0.8900, $0.8880/75, $0.8820

EUR/JPY

Offers Y131.80, Y131.40/50, Y131.15/20, Y131.00, Y130.82/92

Bids Y130.10/00, Y129.55/50, Y129.20, Y129.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y99.50, Y99.02/15, Y98.90/00, Y98.55/63

Bids Y98.07, Y97.85/80, Y97.50, Y97.25/20, Y97.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8810/15, stg0.8790/00, stg0.8695-700, stg0.8670/75, stg0.8645/50

Bids stg0.8605/595, stg0.8585/80, stg0.8550, stg0.8540

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3125, $1.3150, , $1.3285

USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.10, Y99.60, Y100.00

EUR/JPY Y129.85

GBP/USD $1.5300

USD/CHF Chf0.9200

AUD/USD $0.8800, $0.9000, $0.9070

NZD/USD $0.7800

USD/CAD C$1.0370

AUD/CAD C$0.91, C$0.94

01:30 Australia Trade Balance June 0.50 Revised From 0.67 0.81 0.60

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) July -1.8% -6.8%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter II +0.8% Revised From +0.1% +1.3% +2.4%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter II +2.6% +3.0% +5.1%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index June 110.7 108.0 107.0

05:00 Japan Coincident Index June 106.0 105.1 105.2

The yen rose against most major peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan will refrain from adding to stimulus at a meeting starting tomorrow, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe still to detail fresh policies to boost growth.

The dollar fell for a third day versus the yen before Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks after jobs data last week missed estimates. Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto is due to speak on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Center for Community Solutions Annual Human Services Institute on tomorrow.

The euro was near a seven-week high ahead of a report forecast to show German factory orders rebounded and the Italian economy contracted at a slower pace. German factory orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, rose 1 percent from May, when they fell 1.3 percent, economists forecast in a Bloomberg News survey before the Economy Ministry releases the data today.

New Zealand’s currency rose after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. said milk products it offers at auction today will meet any additional standards set by China.

Australia’s dollar rose as the central bank cut borrowing costs to a record low and said the currency remains strong. Australian government bonds slid after the Reserve Bank reduced the overnight cash rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.5 percent, the highest benchmark borrowing costs among developed central banks along with New Zealand’s. The Australian dollar sank 11 percent in 2013 through yesterday, the sharpest drop among 10 developed market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes. The reduction was the second this year, and extends an easing cycle that began in November 2011, when the benchmark rate was lowered from 4.75 percent.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair is trading around the $ 1.3260

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair is trading around the $ 1.5355

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.85

There is another full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Tuesday. Up first is the Italian June industrial output data. Economists are looking for a rise of 0.3% on month and a fall of 3.5% on year. Italian second quarter GDP is expected at 0900GMT. Economists are looking for a 0.4% fall on the quarter, down 2.2% on year. Germany June manufacturing orders are expected at 1000GMT. The UK July SMMT Car Registrations data is also expected at 0800GMT. That will be followed by the June Industrial Production data at 0830GMT.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3261 +0,39%

GBP/USD $1,5356 +1,56%

USD/CHF Chf0,9275 -0,96%

USD/JPY Y98,24 -1,27%

EUR/JPY Y130,29 -0,87%

GBP/JPY Y150,84 +0,29%

AUD/USD $0,8932 -0,03%

NZD/USD $0,7850 -0,60%

USD/CAD C$1,0358 +0,08%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance June 0.50 Revised From 0.67 0.81 0.60

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) July -1.8% -6.8%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter II +0.8% Revised From +0.1% +1.3% +2.4%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter II +2.6% +3.0% +5.1%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index June 110.7 108.0

05:00 Japan Coincident Index June 106.0 105.1

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index July +0.6% +0.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y July +3.7% +4.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) June 0.0% +0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) June -2.3% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) June -0.8% +0.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) June -2.9% +1.0%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) June -1.3% +1.1%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) June -2.0% -0.3%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions June -0.3 -0.5

12:30 U.S. International trade, bln June -45.0 -43.1

14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate July +0.6%

14:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings June 3828 3900

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories July -0.7

22:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter II +1.7% +0.4%

22:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter II 6.2% 6.3%