Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 07-02-2014

The euro has risen sharply against the U.S. dollar after a report by the Ministry of Labour employment was weaker than economists' expectations . The labor market showed a slight increase again in January , though a bit more than in December , increasing concerns about the economic recovery and may lead to the fact that the Federal Reserve will need to rethink its strategy .

Data from the Department of Labor showed that the seasonally adjusted number of people employed in non-agricultural sector grew in January at 113 thousand , compared with an increase of 75 thousand in December ( revised from 74 thousand). The January increase was significantly lower than the average increase in the period from August to November - at the level of 200 thousand jobs.

In addition, it was reported that the unemployment rate fell to 6.6 % last month from 6.7 % in December , as the number of Americans who worked and those that are part of the workforce , increased slightly . Economists had expected an increase of 185,000 jobs and 6.7 % unemployment .

Weak data on the growth of the number of employees in December , and signs of weakness in the housing sector and emerging markets have raised concerns that the beginning of 2014 may be disappointing , and the report for January even more intensified these concerns . Add that weak employment report could force the Fed to reconsider their plans for reducing the amount of bond-buying program . In the past month the Fed voted to reduce the rate of its monthly bond purchases by $ 10 billion , despite a disappointing report on the number of employees in December. Continue to reduce incentives may be challenged , given the other signs of slowing growth and continued low inflation .

Euro rate previously dropped against the U.S. dollar after the German Constitutional Court declared that transmits its decision to the ECB's operations in the open market of the EU Court of Justice . In the accompanying statement, the court said that the plan of the Central Bank for the purchase of bonds , " beyond the mandate of the ECB monetary policy and violates the powers of the participating countries , and violates the prohibition of monetary financing of the budget ." However , the court said that if the decision on the OMT program is adopted restrictive , it will match the German constitution . According to the court , the program OMT can obtain the status of a legitimate , if not undermine the principles of rescue programs EFSF and ESM. Thus, intended to exclude the possibility of reducing the Agreement on the European Stability Mechanism , as well as any unlimited Bank program.

The pound fell against the dollar earlier on the background report , which showed that the volume of production in the manufacturing sector rose in December by 0.3 percent , which was significantly less than forecasts at 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, the total volume of industrial production, which accounts for about 15 percent of the British economy grew by 0.4 percent in December from November . It is estimated that production would grow by 0.7 percent. We also add that in the fourth quarter , industrial output grew by 0.5 %, which was slightly below the initial assessment at the level of 0.7 % , which was published last month. However, lower growth in itself is not sufficient to cause a downward revision to the pace of economic growth in the 4th quarter , reported in the statistical agency .

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.45/50, Y102.00, Y102.25, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y104.00, Y105.00

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3430, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650/55

AUD/USD $0.8750, $0.8850, $0.8875, $0.8900, $0.8940

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

USD/CAD Cad1.0980, Cad1.1050, Cad1.1080, Cad1.1150, Cad1.1200

GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6400, $1.6450

USD/CHF Chf0.8950, Chf0.9000, Chf0.9150, $0.9200

NZD/USD NZ$0.8100

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter I

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI January 50.9 50.7

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index December 111.1 111.9 112.1

05:00 Japan Coincident Index December 110.7 111.7

07:00 Germany Current Account December 21.6 23.5

07:00 Germany Trade Balance December 18.9 Revised From 17.8 17.3 18.5

08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves January 435.2 437.7

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y December +4.2% +3.9% +2.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) December 0.0% +0.7% +0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) December +2.5% +1.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) December 0.0% +0.6% +0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) December +2.8% +1.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods December -9.4 -7.7

11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) December +1.9% +0.5% -0.6%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) December +3.5% +2.6%

The euro exchange rate fell sharply against the U.S. dollar after the German Constitutional Court declared that transmits its decision on operations of the ECB on the open market of the EU Court of Justice . In the accompanying statement, the court said that the plan of the Central Bank for the purchase of bonds , " beyond the mandate of the ECB monetary policy and violates the powers of the participating countries , and violates the prohibition of monetary financing of the budget ." However , the court said that if the decision on the OMT program is adopted restrictive , it will match the German constitution . According to the court , the program OMT can obtain the status of a legitimate , if not undermine the principles of rescue programs EFSF and ESM. Thus, intended to exclude the possibility of reducing the Agreement on the European Stability Mechanism , as well as any unlimited Bank program .

Little impact on the bidding had data on industrial production in Germany . As it became known that the volume of German industrial production unexpectedly fell in December , signaling that Europe's largest economy remains vulnerable to weakness in the rest of the region . Production decreased by 0.6 % from November , when it rose 2.4%. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.5%. Production grew by 2.6% compared with a year earlier , adjusted for the number of working days. Ministry of Economy said that the prospects of industrial production in 2014 remain positive on the background of the " revival" of consumption and improving business confidence .

Pound is trading slightly higher against the dollar, despite the sharp decline earlier. Exerted pressure on the currency report , which showed that the volume of production in the manufacturing sector rose in December by 0.3 percent , which was significantly less than forecasts at 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, the total volume of industrial production, which accounts for about 15 percent of the British economy grew by 0.4 percent in December from November . It is estimated that production would grow by 0.7 percent. We also add that in the fourth quarter , industrial output grew by 0.5 %, which was slightly below the initial assessment at the level of 0.7 % , which was published last month. However, lower growth in itself is not sufficient to cause a downward revision to the pace of economic growth in the 4th quarter , reported in the statistical agency .

The yen fell against the dollar on the eve of today's publication of official statistics on the employment market in the United States . According to the median forecast of economists, the number of new jobs created in the U.S. economy is likely to grow to 185 thousand in January , compared to 75 thousand a month earlier, which was the smallest increase since January 2011 . The unemployment rate , according to the same projected to remain at 6.7 % , the lowest level since 2008.

Recall that the last published data on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits . The number of people who applied for benefits in the U.S. fell by 20,000 to 331,000 in the week ended Feb. 1. This suggests that the U.S. labor market continues to improve gradually .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3551

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6299 , and then recovered to $ 1.6329

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.30

At 13:30 GMT , Canada will report on the unemployment rate and the change in the number of employed in January , while the U.S. will release data on unemployment and the change in the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls in January . At 15:00 GMT Britain to publish data on the change of the NIESR GDP in January .

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.45/50, Y102.00, Y102.25, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y104.00, Y105.00

EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3430, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650/55

AUD/USD $0.8750, $0.8850, $0.8875, $0.8900, $0.8940

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

USD/CAD Cad1.0980, Cad1.1050, Cad1.1080, Cad1.1150, Cad1.1200

GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6400, $1.6450

USD/CHF Chf0.8950, Chf0.9000, Chf0.9150, $0.9200

NZD/USD NZ$0.8100

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index paring its sixth straight weekly loss, as U.S. jobless claims fell and investors weighed company earnings.

Nikkei 225 14,462.41 +307.29 +2.17%

S&P/ASX 200 5,166.53 +35.13 +0.68%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets almost half its revenue in North America, added 2.9 percent.

Sony Corp. climbed 4.1 percent in Tokyo after the electronics maker announced job cuts and a reorganization.

Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd. surged 56 percent in Sydney after Baytex Energy Corp., a Canadian producer of heavy crude oil, agreed to buy the company.

GS Engineering & Construction Corp. slumped 15 percent in Seoul after the contractor said it’s considering a share sale.

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement Quarter I

01:45