Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 08-01-2014

Continued decline in the euro against the U.S. dollar on a background of the employment report from ADP. As shown by recent data that were presented Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in December, private sector employment increased markedly , thereby exceeded the estimates of many economists .

According to a report last month, the number of employed increased by 238,000 people, compared with upwardly revised figure for the previous month at the level of 229 thousand (originally reported growth of 215 thousand jobs ) . Add that, according to the average forecast of this indicator would grow by 199 thousand

Commenting on the latest figures , Carlos Rodriguez , president and chief executive officer of ADP said that " job growth in December was unexpectedly higher than in November, which is mainly characterized by strong results . This is encouraging news , which we hope will bode well for 2014. "

Earlier, the euro declined significantly against the U.S. dollar , despite the strong retail sales data and report on unemployment. Statistical data from Eurostat showed that the unemployment rate in the euro area remained unchanged in November , and remained at a record high value for the eighth consecutive month , but retail sales recorded the biggest monthly increase in 12 years .

According to the report , the unemployment rate in the 17 countries that use the euro was 12.1 percent, while the number of people without jobs was 19.2 million Unemployment among those under 25 years old, was unchanged for the second month in a row - at 24.2 percent .

In addition, it was reported that retail sales in the euro zone in November jumped 1.4 percent on a monthly basis , after falling 0.4 percent in October , registering the fastest monthly increase since November 2001.

Compared with the same period last year, sales rose by 1.6 percent after falling 0.3 percent in October , providing the strongest growth since February 2008. Monthly increase led by a 1.9- percent growth in sales of non-food products except automotive fuel .

Pound rose against the dollar ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England. According to expectations , the Bank of England at its January meeting, save parameters of monetary policy unchanged. At the last meeting , all nine members of the committee supported the decision to leave the key interest rate of the central bank at a record low 0.5% , while the volume of bond-buying program - at 375 billion pounds.

In August committee promised not to consider the possibility of a rate hike as long as the unemployment rate drops to 7% , unless there are signs of a strong rise in inflation or inflation expectations.

While there is no such indication , and thanks to the Government's efforts to slow down the growth of tariffs for energy supply of housing, the annual inflation rate in the 1st quarter of 2014 , probably closer to the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2.0 %.

Most recent data indicate the development of recovery, but at the same time it is vulnerable in the event of a further appreciation of the pound, which was up 9 % from March 2013. In the 3rd quarter, the UK economy grew faster than the economies of other major developed countries , and the Bank of England expects that in the 4th quarter of 2013, GDP will grow by 0.9%. Due to strong indicators UK investors and traders came to believe that the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than the European Central Bank .

EUR/USD $1.3525, $1.3600, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y104.00, Y104.40, Y104.75, Y104.80, Y105.00

EUR/JPY Y143.00

GBP/USD $1.6460, $1.6500

EUR/GBP stg0.8255, stg0.8300, stg0.8350

USD/CHF Chf0.8875

EUR/SEK Sek8.9025

AUD/USD $0.8850, $0.8900, $0.8950

AUD/JPY Y94.25

USD/CAD C$1.0800

Data

7:00 Germany Balance of Payments 19.1 21.6 billion in November

7:00 Germany Trade Balance, 16.8 billion in November 18.9 17.8

08:00 UK house price index from Halifax, m / m +1.1 % in December +0.6% -0.6%

08:00 UK house price index from Halifax, 3m y / y +7.7 % +7.5 December %

09:30 UK BoE on the state of the credit market UK IV quarter

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales m / m in November -0.2% +0.2% +1.4%

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales y / y in November -0.1 % 0.0% 1.6%

10:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in November 12.1 % 12.1 % 12.1%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders m / m November  -2.2 % +1.2 %  +2.1%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders y / y November +1.9%       +3.7%

The euro exchange rate fell markedly against the U.S. dollar , despite the strong data on retail sales and unemployment report . Add that dollar growth expectations help you publish a report on the United States. The median estimate of economists number of new jobs can grow in the last month to 199 thousand

Statistical data from Eurostat showed that the unemployment rate in the euro area remained unchanged in November , and remained at a record high value for the eighth consecutive month , but retail sales recorded the biggest monthly increase in 12 years .

According to the report , the unemployment rate in the 17 countries that use the euro was 12.1 percent, while the number of people without jobs was 19.2 million Unemployment among those under 25 years old, was unchanged for the second month in a row - at 24.2 percent .

In addition, it was reported that retail sales in the euro zone in November jumped 1.4 percent on a monthly basis , after falling 0.4 percent in October , registering the fastest monthly increase since November 2001.

Compared with the same period last year, sales rose by 1.6 percent after falling 0.3 percent in October , providing the strongest growth since February 2008. Monthly increase led by a 1.9- percent growth in sales of non-food products except automotive fuel .

Pound rose slightly against the U.S. dollar ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England. According to expectations , the Bank of England at its January meeting, save parameters of monetary policy unchanged. At the last meeting , all nine members of the committee supported the decision to leave the key interest rate of the central bank at a record low 0.5% , while the volume of bond-buying program - at 375 billion pounds.

In August committee promised not to consider the possibility of a rate hike as long as the unemployment rate drops to 7% , unless there are signs of a strong rise in inflation or inflation expectations.

While there is no such indication , and thanks to the Government's efforts to slow down the growth of tariffs for energy supply of housing, the annual inflation rate in the 1st quarter of 2014 , probably closer to the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2.0 %.

Most recent data indicate the development of recovery, but at the same time it is vulnerable in the event of a further appreciation of the pound, which was up 9 % from March 2013. In the 3rd quarter, the UK economy grew faster than the economies of other major developed countries , and the Bank of England expects that in the 4th quarter of 2013, GDP will grow by 0.9%. Due to strong indicators UK investors and traders came to believe that the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than the European Central Bank .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3590

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6434

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y105.12, but then fell to Y104.65

At 13:15 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the number of employees from ADP in December. At 19:00 GMT held publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting in December. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand announces the change of volume of building permits issued in November.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3750, $1.3720/25, $1.3700/10, $1.3670/80, $1.3635-40

Bids $1.3592, $1.3575/70, $1.3555/50, $1.3525/20, $1.3500

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6500/10, $1.6470/80, $1.6440/50, $1.6438

Bids $1.6375/70, $1.6350, $1.6337, $1.6300, $1.6290

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9020, $0.9000, $0.8971/82, $0.8945/50, $0.8932/38

Bids $0.8900, $0.8885/80, $0.8870, $0.8855/50, $0.8825/20

USD/JPY

Offers Y106.00, Y105.80, Y105.45/50, Y105.30/40, Y105.20

Bids Y104.50, Y104.00, Y103.80, Y103.75/70, Y103.59

EUR/JPY

Offers Y144.25/30, Y144.00, Y143.80, Y143.50, Y143.20

Bids Y142.50/40, Y142.28, Y142.20, Y142.00, Y141.85/80

EUR/GBP

Offers Stg0.8400/05, stg0.8370/80, stg0.8350, stg0.8340, stg0.8330/35, stg0.83165

Bids stg0.8280-70, stg0.8260/50, stg0.8250, stg0.8220, stg0.8205/00

EUR/USD $1.3525, $1.3600, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y104.00, Y104.40, Y104.75, Y104.80, Y105.00

EUR/JPY Y143.00

GBP/USD $1.6460, $1.6500

EUR/GBP stg0.8255, stg0.8300, stg0.8350

USD/CHF Chf0.8875

EUR/SEK Sek8.9025

AUD/USD $0.8850, $0.8900, $0.8950

AUD/JPY Y94.25

USD/CAD C$1.0800

(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD