Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 08-05-2012

Euro spikes to $1.3020-25 and then stabilizes at lower levels, although still above the psychological $1.30 mark.

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3080, $1.3150-55, $1.3200

USD/JPY Y80.20 

AUD/USD  $1.0000, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0350

GBP/USD $1.6200

Data:

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) March -1.3% +0.8% +2.8%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) March -1.0% -1.2% +1.6%

EUR/USD
Offres $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3080/85, $1.3040/45
Bids $1.2990, $1.2980, $1.2955/50, $1.2925/20

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.75/80, Y80.60/70, Y80.50/55, Y80.35/40, Y80.20, Y80.05/10
Bids Y79.70, Y79.60, Y79.50, Y79.40/35

EUR/JPY
Offers Y105.45/50, Y104.95/00, Y104.25/30
Bids Y103.50, Y103.25/20, Y103.00, Y102.50

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0335/40, $1.0320/25, $1.0295/00, $1.0275/80, $1.0250/55, $1.0190/00
Bids $1.0100, $1.0050, $1.0035/30, $1.0000

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (area of May 2-3 highs)
Resistance 2: Y80.40 (May 4 high)
Resistance 1: Y80.10 (МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Y79.75
Support 1: Y79.60/50 (May 1 and 7 lows, high of November’2011)
Support 2: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)
Support 3: Y78.40 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (area of session high, May 7 high and МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1 : $1.6150 (38,2 % FIBO of today's falling)

Current price: $1.6131

Support 1 : $1.6120/10 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, May 7 low)

Support 2 : $1.6080 (area of Apr 23 and 25 lows)

Support 3 : $1.6060 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300)

Resistance 3 : $1.3180 (May 3-4 highs, МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.3120 (МА (100) for D1)
Resistance 1 : $1.3070/80 (area of May 4 low, session high and May 7 high)
Current price: $1.3013
Support 1 : $1.3000 (session low, low of April and March)
Support 2 : $1.2950 (May 7 low)
Support 3 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3080, $1.3150-55, $1.3200 

USD/JPY Y80.20

AUD/USD  $1.0000, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0350

GBP/USD $1.6200

01:30 Australia Trade Balance March -0.48 -1.37 -1.59

The euro traded 0.6 percent from a three-month low as Greece’s political leaders meet for a second day in a bid to form a new government, after an election raised questions about the country’s membership of the euro bloc. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said he failed to forge agreement to form a Greek government after weekend elections. The attempt will pass to Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza, the second biggest party, which has vowed to cancel bailout terms for the nation. Tsipras will see President Karolos Papoulias today at 2 p.m. Athens time.

The 17-nation currency maintained a two-day decline against the yen after French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s preferred partner for enforcing debt reductions, was defeated by Socialist Francois Hollande.  

Demand for the yen was limited as Asian stocks climbed before data that may show German industrial production rebounded. German industrial production probably rose 0.8 percent in March from the previous month when it slid 1.3 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data due today.

The Australian dollar weakened after the nation reported its biggest trade deficit in five years. Imports outpaced exports by A$1.587 billion ($1.61 billion) in March, from a revised A$754 million deficit the previous month, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a deficit of A$1.3 billion.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair decreased.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, however fell later.

Main core-European data is limited to the 1000GMT release of Germany industrial output data, while at the same time, ECB Governing Council member Patrick Honohan is due to participate in a panel discussion entitled "The Return of the Surprise in Central  Banking", in London. At 1230GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give an address at the Signing of the T2S Framework Agreement between the Eurosystem and the Central Securities  Depositories, in Frankfurt. US data continues at 1255GMT with the Johnson Redbook weekly chain store sales data. At 1345GMT, Richmond Fed President  Jeffrey Lacker holds a roundtable discussion with Guilfod Technical Community College students, in Greensboro, N.C. Finally, at 1745GMT, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to a business audience at the "Growth DFW" event sponsored by the Dallas Convention & Visitors Bureau

and the Dallas Regional Chamber.

Yesterday the euro weakened to a more than three-month low after Francois Hollande was elected president of France and as Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, stoking concern austerity efforts in Europe may be derailed. The 17-nation currency slid for a sixth day, its longest series of declines since September, dropping as much as 1 percent before paring losses. Hollande, who becomes the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe’s second-biggest economy, pledged to push for less austerity and more growth in the region.

Hollande’s platform calls for policies German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes, including increased spending and delayed deficit cuts. He used his campaign to call for an activist European Central Bank, defying Germany. Merkel telephoned Hollande to congratulate him and to invite him for talks in Berlin “as soon as possible,” according to a statement from her government.

Greek elections left the two biggest parties short of the clear majority to keep bailout efforts on track. With the nation dependent on rescue funds to stay in the euro, the next government will need to find cuts worth 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2013 and 2014.

Australia’s currency was on track for its longest stretch of losses in nine months even after domestic reports showed gains in retail sales and building approvals. Australia’s retail sales climbed 0.9 percent in March after a revised 0.3 percent gain in the previous month, the country’s statistics office said in Sydney. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.2 percent advance. A separate report showed the number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments rose 7.4 percent in March from February, when they dropped a revised 8.8 percent.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair was restored, fixed above $1.3000.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair gain to Friday’s high.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds in range Y79.65-Y80.00.

Main core-European data is limited to the 1000GMT release of Germany industrial output data, while at the same time, ECB Governing Council member Patrick Honohan is due to participate in a panel discussion entitled "The Return of the Surprise in Central  Banking", in London. At 1230GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give an address at the Signing of the T2S Framework Agreement between the Eurosystem and the Central Securities  Depositories, in Frankfurt. US data continues at 1255GMT with the Johnson Redbook weekly chain store sales data. At 1345GMT, Richmond Fed President  Jeffrey Lacker holds a roundtable discussion with Guilfod Technical Community College students, in Greensboro, N.C. Finally, at 1745GMT, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to a business audience at the "Growth DFW" event sponsored by the Dallas Convention & Visitors Bureau

and the Dallas Regional Chamber.

Resistance 3: Y80.60 (May 2 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.40 (May 4 high)

Resistance 1: Y80.10 (session high)

The current price: Y79.98

Support 1: Y79.65 (May 1-7 low)

Support 2: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9300 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9270 (May 7 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9220 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9216

Support 1: Chf0.9195 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9175 (May 3 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9115 (May 3-4 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6245 (May 1 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6215 (May 3 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6200 (session high, May 4 high)

The current price: $1.6174

Support 1 : $1.6145 (low of the American session on May 7)

Support 2 : $1.6115 (May 7 low)

Support 3 : $1.6080 (Apr 25 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3240 (May 2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3070/80 (session high, May 4 low)

The current price: $1.3030

Support 1 : $1.3020 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2950 (May 7 low)

Support 3 : $1.2875 (Jan 23 low)

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3058 -0,19%

GBP/USD $1,6193 +0,28%

USD/CHF Chf0,9199 +0,21%

USD/JPY Y79,89 +0,06%

EUR/JPY Y104,31 -0,14%

GBP/JPY Y129,36 +0,34%

AUD/USD $1,0203 +0,24%

NZD/USD $0,7953 -0,01%

USD/CAD C$0,9928 -0,29%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance March -0.48 -1.37

05:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter I -19 -18

09:30 Australia Annual Budget Release -

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) March -1.3% +0.8%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) March -1.0% -1.2%

12:15 Canada Housing Starts April 216 205

12:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

16:45 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks -

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report May

21:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m April +1.9%

23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y April +1.3% +0.6%

23:15 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks -