Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 09-12-2013

USD/JPY Y102.50, Y102.65, Y102.75, Y103.00, Y103.10, Y103.20, Y103.25, Y103.50

EUR/USD $1.3590, $1.3600, $1.3700, $1.3750

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $0.8900, $0.9100, $0.9190

USD/CAD C$1.0600, C$1.0620, C$1.0670

Data

00:30 Australia Index number of vacancies from ANZ, m / m -0.1% in November 0.8%

1:30 China Producer Price Index y / y in November -1.5 % -1.5 % -1.4 %

1:30 China Consumer Price Index y / y +3.2 % +3.0 November % +3.0 %

05:00 Japan index of the current situation of the Eco Watchers November 51.8 52.3 53.5

05:00 Japan : Outlook Eco Watchers Survey: November 54.5 54.7 54.8

6:45 Switzerland November unemployment rate of 3.2% 3.2 % 3.2 %

7:00 Germany Balance of Payments, 19.7 billion in October 17.1 19.1

7:00 Germany Trade Balance, 18.8 billion in October 17.4 16.8

8:15 Switzerland Retail Sales y / y in October +1.0 % +1.7% +1.2 %

09:30 EU indicator of investor confidence Sentix October 9.3 10.5 8.0

10:00 EU Eurogroup Meeting

11:00 Germany Industrial Production ( m / m) in October -0.9% +0.8% -1.2 %

11:00 Germany Industrial Production y / y in October +1.0 % +3.1% +1.0 %

The euro exchange rate rose slightly against the dollar, helped by positive data on the balance of payments in Germany. As it became known , the surplus of the current account balance Germany in October fell not so much as expected. Unadjusted he declined to 19.1 billion euros against a revised 20.0 billion euros in September. It's more than economists forecast , which was 16.8 billion euros

Nevertheless, the positive part of this was offset by other data , which showed that the trade surplus with adjustments for seasonal and calendar factors in October fell to 16.8 billion euros compared with 18.7 billion euros in September. It was also less than economists forecast , which was 17.4 billion euros.

We also add that bullish about the single currency has persisted despite the drop in the index of investor sentiment Sentix to 8 vs. 10.4 and the previous value of 9.3. Experts note that the growth momentum of the eurozone remains too slow to eliminate the risks of disinflation / deflation. So , on the agenda is the prospect of easing by the ECB , which is negative for the euro

It should also be noted that the euro was little reaction to weak report on industrial production , which showed a decrease in volume by 1.2 % in October , although expected to grow by 0.8%.

The yen traded cautiously against the dollar, despite the fact that the published data were worse than expected . Report from the Cabinet Office showed that the Japanese economy in the third quarter increased by 0.3 %. According to preliminary data, the growth was at 0.5% . Revision due to the fact that capital investments were lower than the original estimate, due to weak foreign demand . Compared with the first half of the year growth has slowed considerably - when he was about 4.0 %, which overtook the U.S. growth . The government and the central bank of Japan expect recovery of exports and business investment in the country, which is seen as necessary in order that the economy continued to increase after the increase in the sales tax in April next year . However, the government revised data for capital expenditure from 0.7% in the preliminary estimate of GDP to change no change . Has also been reduced growth rate of reserves - to 0.7 % on an annualized basis Revision of data on GDP growth downward confirms the fragility of economic recovery in Japan , to benefit from short-term demand growth before sales tax increase in April.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3729

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6390

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair traded in a narrow range of Y102.88-Y103.20

At 13:15 GMT , Canada will release data on the number of Housing Starts for November. At 23:50 GMT Japan BSI to publish an index of business conditions for large manufacturers and business conditions index (BSI) for large enterprises in all sectors for the 4th quarter , as well as the index of activity in the services sector in October.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3830/35, $1.3810/20, $1.3800, $1.3780/85, $1.3770, $1.3750, $1.3730

Bids $1.3685/80, $1.3670, $1.3650, $1.3620

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6450, $1.6390/405, $1.6375, $1.6360

Bids $1.6300/290, $1.6275/70, $1.6260/50, $1.6240, $1.6220

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9200, $0.9180, $0.9165/70, $0.9150

Bids $0.9070/65, $0.9050, $0.9035/30, $0.8980, $0.8950

EUR/JPY

Offers Y143.00, Y142.50/65, Y142.00/10, Y141.55

Bids Y140.70, Y140.10/00, Y139.50/40, Y139.10/00, Y138.50/40, Y138.20, Y138.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y104.00, Y103.80, Y103.60, Y103.50, Y103.00-25

Bids Y102.90/80, Y102.45, Y101.50, Y101.20-00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8500, stg0.8475/80, stg0.8440, stg0.8415/20, stg0.8395/400

Bids stg0.8365, stg0.8330/20, stg0.8300/290, stg0.8260/50

USD/JPY Y102.50, Y102.65, Y102.75, Y103.00, Y103.10, Y103.20, Y103.25, Y103.50

EUR/USD $1.3590, $1.3600, $1.3700, $1.3750

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $0.8900, $0.9100, $0.9190

USD/CAD C$1.0600, C$1.0620, C$1.0670

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) November -0.1% -0.8%

01:30 China PPI y/y November -1.5% -1.5% -1.4%

01:30 China CPI y/y November +3.2% +3.0% +3.0%

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current November 51.8 52.3 53.5

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook November 54.5 54.7 54.8

The dollar remained higher against the yen before regional Federal Reserve presidents speak amid speculation the U.S. central bank will consider reducing monetary stimulus as early as next week.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who has said policy makers could taper at this month’s meeting, and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher will speak separately today. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on Nov. 20 a strong jobs report could increase the chances of slowing the pace of bond purchases this month. The Dallas Fed’s Fisher, who will vote on policy next year, said on Dec. 5 the Fed at the start of tapering purchases should provide “a definite path as to when we reach zero.”

The euro reached a five-year high versus the yen before data forecast to show a pickup in industrial production in Germany, Europe’s largest economy. German industrial production probably increased 0.7 percent in October from the previous month, when it contracted 0.9 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data today.

Australia’s dollar held a two-day gain after China trade surplus increased to a four-year high. In China, the trade surplus widened to $33.8 billion, the biggest since January 2009, data from the General Administration of Customs showed yesterday in Beijing. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3720

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6320

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y102.85-35

A data light day in the UK with moves to come from continued analyst fallout from Friday's strong NFP and its possible effects on the US taper timetable.

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) November -0.1%

01:30 China PPI y/y November -1.5% -1.5%

01:30 China CPI y/y November +3.2% +3.0%

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current November 51.8 52.3

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook November 54.5 54.7

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate November 3.2% 3.2%

07:00 Germany Current Account October 19.7 17.1

07:00 Germany Trade Balance October 18.8 17.4

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y October +1.0% +1.7%

09:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence October 9.3 10.5

10:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings

11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) October -0.9% +0.8%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) October +1.0% +3.1%

13:15 Canada Housing Starts November 198 195

17:15 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

18:05 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

23:50 Japan BSI Manufacturing Index Quarter IV 15.2 17.2

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index October -0.2% +0.3%