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Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 11-01-2013
The
Economists
were forecasting a deficit of closer to $1 billion.
The
December deficit was also the lowest December number since 2007, reports Bloomberg.
It's worth
noting that monthly numbers are noisy, and that seasonal factors tend to be
considerable in December.
Regardless, this is an encouraging sign. Receipts were $269.5 billion while the spending was $269.7 billion. This is important to remember, because budget deficits and surpluses aren't just about spending levels. Indeed, growth plays just as important a role.
The yen fell to 2.5-year low against the dollar after the statement of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Bank of Japan should ask to increase employment. Japan's current account deficit in November was 222.4 billion yen ($ 2.5 billion), with projections of 3.5 billion yen, the first deficit in 10 months. Much greater than expected, the deficit of the current account balance in Japan has caused further weakening of the yen against the expectations of the new government's policies. The Japanese government on Friday approved a package of measures to stimulate the economy $ 10.3 trillion yen and promised to strengthen ties with the Bank of Japan as part of efforts to fight deflation and long-term support to the economy. Abe has said repeatedly that the victory over deflation is very important, and expressed the hope that the Bank of Japan has set a target level of inflation 2% from the current 1%. Note that the Japanese currency shows decline for the ninth consecutive week, fixing the most prolonged decline in more than 20 years.
During Friday's trading, USD / JPY rose to 89.46, its highest level since June 2010. Pair EUR / JPY peaked in May 2011 119.35. Pair AUD / JPY rose to 94.51, its highest level since August 2008.
The euro / dollar in Asian and European trading sessions kept after yesterday's sharp growth in speech Draghi, who allowed the euro / dollar gain 200 points. Currency was little support successful auction of government bonds, the Italian Government to the tune of £ 3, 5 billion with a yield of 1.85%. But in the New York session, the euro / dollar rose sharply, breaking through $ 1.3300 after the publication of the U.S. trade balance. In November, the trade balance registered a deficit of $ 48.7 billion against forecasts of $ 41.3 billion and $ 42.1 billion in October. Also today, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that December import prices reflected the decline of 0.1% m / m and 1.5% y / y
The Swiss franc fell to a four-month low against the euro after a government report showed that consumer prices fell in December, slightly more than expected by experts, at the same time fixing its longest slump in four decades.
The falling pound showed today amid evidence that UK industrial output for November showed the dynamics at the level of 0.3% in the month and 2.4% a year, against forecasts of +0.8% and -1.9 %. In addition, production in the manufacturing sector fell by 0.3% and 2.1%, against expectations of +0.5% and -1.3%. NIESR later published a report with the assessment of the British economy, according to which the country's GDP in the 4th quarter decreased by 0.3%, while the UK GDP for the full 2012 has not changed. Meanwhile, for the entire 2011 GDP grew by 0.9%.Rally USD / JPY at narrowing current account surplus of Japan (Y225.94 billion in November against Y414.1 billion) led the couple to a new high Y89.35 in early Asian trading. Early in the New York session, she again tried to take him and reached Y89.45.
However, the resistance line at Y89.30 was a good level to secure profits. To date, the pair USD / JPY fell to quickly Y89.00/10.
After rallying to a maximum of $ 1.6169 on a report on U.S. trade balance (deficit reflected the growth of $ -42.06 billion to $ -48.73 billion in November from $ -41.30 billion projected) sales returned pair GBP / USD to $ 1.6100 in anticipation of the report on Britain's GDP. Weather for past 3 months, fell by 0.3% in December, according to the NIESR. Earlier, he described the increase of 0.1%. Pair dropped to a low of $ 1.6087 on the news.
EUR/USD $1.3175, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3350
USD/JPY Y88.25, Y88.50, Y88.65, Y89.00
GBP/USD $1.6175
EUR/GBP stg0.8215
AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0550, $1.0500Data
01:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
01:30 China CPI y/y December +2.0% +2.3% +2.5%
01:30 China PPI y/y December -2.2% -1.8% -1.9%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current December 40.0 41.1 45.8
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook December 41.9 51.0
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) December -0.3% -0.1% -0.2%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) December -0.4% -0.3% -0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) November -0.9% -0.8% +0.3%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) November -3.0% -2.0% -2.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) November -1.3% +0.6% -0.3%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) November -2.0% -1.3% -2.1%
During the trade the yen hit its weakest level since June 2010 in relation to the dollar, which was caused by the fact that the Japanese government announced the introduction of a new stimulus package of $ 116.8 billion, which would tend to weaken the currency. In addition, Japan will spend around 3.8 trillion yen for disaster prevention and reconstruction of their consequences, and 3.1 trillion yen to stimulate private investment, as well as other measures. Note that the Japanese currency shows decline for the ninth consecutive week, fixing the most prolonged decline in more than 20 years.
The Swiss franc fell to a four-month low against the euro after a government report showed that consumer prices fell in December, slightly more than expected by experts, at the same time fixing its longest slump in four decades.
Meanwhile, the euro after yesterday's sharp growth in trading reserved, and in a narrow range. During the European session, the euro suffered from a lack of factors that could cause it to grow, and is still feeling the effects of yesterday's speech Draghi, who allowed a pair score 200 points. Currency was little support successful auction of government bonds, the Italian Government. Note that the country has placed the paper in the amount of £ 3, 5 billion with a yield of 1.85%.
The falling pound has shown today that was caused by the release of data showing that UK industrial output for November showed the dynamics at the level of 0.3% in the month and 2.4% per year, versus forecasts for 0.8% and -1.9%. In addition, production in the manufacturing sector fell by 0.3% and 2.1%, against expectations of +0.5% and -1.3%.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.3246-$ 1.3284
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell 1.6105
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y88.73
At 13:30 GMT the U.S. and Canada will report on the trade balance for November. At the same time, the U.S. will import prices for December. At 14:30 GMT the U.S. member of the FOMC Charles Plosser will speak. At 15:00 GMT the UK will provide data on the change in GDP from NIESR. At 19:00 GMT the United States will be published monthly performance report for December.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3380/85, $1.3365/70, $1.3350, $1.3325, $1.3295/310
Bids $1.3250/45, $1.3230/20, $1.3205/00, $1.3180/70, $1.3150/40
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0635/40, $1.0625, $1.0600
Bids $1.0550, $1.0540, $1.0520, $1.0500, $1.0480/70
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6250/60, $1.6230/35, $1.6220, $1.6180/85
Bids $1.6110-095, $1.6065/60, $1.6050/40
EUR/JPY
Offers Y118.70, Y118.55/60, Y118.40, Y118.25/30
Bids Y117.60/50, Y117.20, Y117.00, Y116.50, Y116.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y90.30/35, Y89.50, Y89.35/40
Bids Y88.70/65, Y88.50 , Y88.30, Y88.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8300, stg0.8275/85, stg0.8260/65
Bids stg0.8205/00, stg0.8180, stg0.8165/60, stg0.8145/35
Negative background shapes lowering the credit rating of Cyprus in three steps - from B3 to Caa3 - with a "negative" outlook, said the rating agency Moody's. The reason for its decline was concern Moody's, due to excessively high levels of public debt and the problems with the capitalization of the banking sector.
EU representative Rehn said that the recovery in Europe will remain slybym in 2013.
Positive background creates the news that Japan, which is one of the largest economies in the world, has adopted a program to stimulate the economy amount to $ 116.8 billion These funds will be invested in infrastructure, financial assistance to small businesses and encourage corporate investment, NHK television channel . Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes that extra-soft monetary policy and economic incentives will help the country get out of the recession of the late 2012., Which became
FTSE 100 6,101.62 +0.11 0.00%
DAX 7,708.27 -0.20 0.00%
CAC 3,686.26 -16.86 -0.46%
Shares of software maker SAP AG rose 1.7% on news that the company intends to enter the market for database management systems and settled on it over the next 20 years.
The market value of the largest French computer services provider Cap Gemini has increased by 3,9%, Atos - by 1.3%. Rival Infosys improved revenue forecast for the year, and its market capitalization has increased by 1.2%.
EUR/USD $1.3175, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3350
USD/JPY Y88.25, Y88.50, Y88.65, Y89.00
GBP/USD $1.6175
EUR/GBP stg0.8215
AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0550, $1.0500
The euro rose the most in five months versus the dollar as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the economy should gradually recover and the decision to refrain from cutting interest rates was unanimous.
The 17-nation currency climbed to the strongest since July 2011 against the yen after Spain sold more than the maximum target at its first debt auction of the year, adding to signs the region’s financial crisis is easing. The Spanish Treasury in Madrid raised 5.82 billion euros ($7.69 billion) from the sale of three bonds, exceeding its upper target of 5 billion euros. The auctions included a new two-year note with so-called collective-action clauses limiting investors’ rights to oppose writedowns.
The yen fell for a second day versus the dollar on bets Japanese policy makers will boost stimulus that tends to weaken the currency. The yen declined against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts except South Africa’s rand after a draft document obtained by Bloomberg News showed the government expects the central bank to conduct “bold” monetary easing. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the BOJ was in close cooperation with the government. The central bank next meets on Jan. 21-22.
Australia’s currency gained for a fifth day as Chinese imports increased. Australia’s dollar strengthened to the highest level in almost four months versus its U.S. counterpart after data showed imports increased in China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest overseas market. Shipments to China rose 6 percent last month, the customs administration said in Beijing.
The British pound rose after it during the first meeting of the new year, the Bank of England MPC members decided to keep the current course of monetary policy unchanged.
01:30 China CPI y/y December +2.0% +2.3% +2.5%
01:30 China PPI y/y December -2.2% -1.8% -1.9%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current December 40.0 41.1 45.8
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook December 41.9 51.0
The yen touched the weakest level since June 2010 against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan will cooperate with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government to ramp up efforts to stimulate the economy. Japan’s currency headed for a ninth week of declines as the Cabinet approved 10.3 trillion yen ($116 billion) of fiscal stimulus after the nation posted wider-than-expected current account and trade deficits. The nation’s current account swung to a 222.4 billion yen deficit in November from a 376.9 billion yen surplus the previous month, Finance Ministry data showed today. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 17.1 billion shortfall.
The euro held the biggest gain in five months against the greenback from yesterday before a report that may show the region’s industrial output increased. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast euro-area industrial production rose 0.3 percent in November from the previous month when it fell 1.4 percent. The European Union’s statistics office releases the data on Jan. 14.
The 17-nation currency was supported after the European Central Bank left its main refinancing rate at a record low of 0.75 percent at a meeting yesterday in Frankfurt, as President Mario Draghi said the economy should regain momentum.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.3250.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair retreated from yesterday's high to $1.6140.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair climbed to Y89.35, but declined later.
With the central bank meetings for the week behing us, Friday's focus returns to the data calendar. At 0700GMT, the European Commission Vice President Olli Rehn gives a briefing at the European Policy Centre, in Brussels. The data calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the release of the French November current account and the November central govt deficit data. At 1830GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is slated to speak at University of Heidelberg, in Germany. UK data is released at 0930GMT, when UK November Industrial Production numbers will cross the wires. At 1500GMT, the January monthly GDP Growth Forecast will hit the screens.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3271 +1,56%
GBP/USD $1,6166 +0,90%
USD/CHF Chf0,9141 -1,21%
USD/JPY Y88,77 +1,01%
EUR/JPY Y117,81 +2,57%
GBP/JPY Y143,50 +1,90%
AUD/USD $1,0597 +0,80%
NZD/USD $0,8455 +0,71%
USD/CAD C$0,9832 -0,43%1:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
01:30 China CPI y/y December +2.0% +2.3% +2.5%
01:30 China PPI y/y December -2.2% -1.8% -1.9%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current December 40.0 41.1
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook December 41.9
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) December -0.3% -0.1%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) December -0.4% -0.3%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) November -0.8% -0.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) November -3.0% -2.0%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) November -1.3% +0.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) November -2.1% -1.3%
13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions November -0.2 0.3
13:30 U.S. International trade, bln November -42.2 -41.1
13:30 U.S. Import Price Index December -0.9% +0.1%
15:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate December +0.1%
19:00 U.S. Federal budget December -172.1 -22.1
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