Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 11-06-2014

EUR/USD $1,3533 -0,08%

GBP/USD $1,6789 +0,21%

USD/CHF Chf0,8996 +0,06%

USD/JPY Y101,98 -0,36%

EUR/JPY Y138,02 -0,43%

GBP/JPY Y171,21 -0,14%

AUD/USD $0,9384 +0,16%

NZD/USD $0,8612 +1,02%

USD/CAD C$1,0865 -0,34%

00:30 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m May +0.1%

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation June 4.4%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed May 14.2 10.3

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate May 5.8% 5.9%

06:45 France CPI, m/m May 0.0% +0.1%

06:45 France CPI, y/y May +0.7%

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report June

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) April -0.3% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) April -0.1% +0.9%

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index April +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales May +0.1% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto May 0.0% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims June 312 306

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index May -0.4% +0.2%

14:00 U.S. Business inventories April +0.4% +0.4%

15:15 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI May 55.2

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m May +0.6%

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y May +1.5%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies, but the U.S. currency is still supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasuries climbed to 2.64% on Tuesday. That was the highest yield since last month.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro suffers due to bond yield gap between some euro area government bonds and U.S. Treasuries. While the currency in the Eurozone is to remain permanently cheap, the first interest rate hike by the Fed in the United States and by the Bank of England in the U.K. is more likely.

The European Central Bank cut its interest rate last Thursday. The ECB reduced its deposit rate to -0.10% from 0.0%. The European Central Bank is the world’s first major central bank to use a negative rate. The deposit rate of -0.10% means that commercial bank will be charged for holding their reserves. This measure should spur commercial banks to ramp up lending.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar due to the strong labour market data in the U.K. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in the three months to April from 6.8% in the previous three months. That was the lowest level since early 2009. Analysts had expected a decline to 6.7%.

Jobless claims (claimant count) declined by 27,400 in May, compared with a forecast for a decline of 25,000 people. April’s figure was revised to a decrease of 28,400 from 25,100.

Weekly earnings increased by 0.7% in the three months to April, missing expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 1.7% rise in the previous three months. The growth of wages is slower than inflation in the U.K. The inflation rate in the UK was 1.8% in April.

The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will not expand its stimulus measures at its meeting this week.

The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any economic data.

In the overnight trading session, the BSI manufacturing index was released in Japan. . Japan's BSI manufacturing index for the second quarter declined to 13.9 points from 12.7 in the first quarter, missing expectations for a rise to 14.1.

The New Zealand dollar rose against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major economic reports. The kiwi was supported by expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will raise interest rates again later in the day. Investors expect the RBNZ will hike its interest rate by 0.25% to 3.25%.

The Australian dollar climbed to 1-month highs against the U.S. dollar due to the better-than-expected consumer sentiment data from Australia. The Westpac consumer confidence in Australia increased 0.2% in June, after a 6.8% decline in May.

EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3575, $1.3600, $1.3625

USD/JPY Y102.05, Y102.25, Y102.65, Y103.00

EUR/JPY Y139.00, Y140.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8080, stg0.8115

EUR/CHF Chf1.2180-85, Chf1.2200

USD/CAD Cad1.0900

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:30    Australia                Westpac Consumer Confidence          June     -6.8%                  0.2%

08:30    United Kingdom     Average Earnings, 3m/y                     April      +1.7%  +1.2%  +0.7%

08:30    United Kingdom     Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y  April      +1.3%  +1.2%  +0.9%

08:30    United Kingdom     Claimant count                                   May       -25.1     -25.0    -27.4

08:30    United Kingdom     Claimant Count Rate                          May       3.3%                   3.2%

08:30    United Kingdom     ILO Unemployment Rate                    April       6.8%     6.7%     6.6%

09:00    OPEC                    OPEC Meetings                                                             

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies, but the U.S. currency is still supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasuries climbed to 2.64% on Tuesday. That was the highest yield since last month.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro suffers due to bond yield gap between some euro area government bonds and U.S. Treasuries. While the currency in the Eurozone is to remain permanently cheap, the first interest rate hike by the Fed in the United States and by the Bank of England in the U.K. is more likely.

The European Central Bank cut its interest rate last Thursday. The ECB reduced its deposit rate to -0.10% from 0.0%. The European Central Bank is the world’s first major central bank to use a negative rate. The deposit rate of -0.10% means that commercial bank will be charged for holding their reserves. This measure should spur commercial banks to ramp up lending.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar due to the strong labour market data in the U.K. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in the three months to April from 6.8% in the previous three months. That was the lowest level since early 2009. Analysts had expected a decline to 6.7%.

Jobless claims (claimant count) declined by 27,400 in May, compared with a forecast for a decline of 25,000 people. April’s figure was revised to a decrease of 28,400 from 25,100.

Weekly earnings increased by 0.7% in the three months to April, missing expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 1.7% rise in the previous three months. The growth of wages is slower than inflation in the U.K. The inflation rate in the UK was 1.8% in April.

The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will not expand its stimulus measures at its meeting this week.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6796

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.85

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:30    U.S.                       Crude Oil Inventories             June      -3.4                     

18:00    U.S.                       Federal budget                      May       106.9    -142.8 

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Interest Rate Decision                3.00%   3.25%  

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Rate Statement                                               

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Press Conference                                                           

23:01    United Kingdom     RICS House Price Balance        May       54%       52%     

23:50    Japan                    Core Machinery Orders            April      +19.1% -10.8%

23:50    Japan                    Core Machinery Orders, y/y     April      +16.1%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3775, $1.3735, $1.3695/700, $1.3675, $1.3625, $1.3600/05

Bids $1.3520, $1.3500, $1.3480

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6900, $1.6880, $1.6845, $1.6815, $1.6790

Bids $1.6720, $1.6700, $1.6690

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9450, $0.9420, $0.9400

Bids $0.9335, $0.9300, $0.9255/50, $0.9235/30

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.80, Y140.50, Y140.00, Y139.40, Y139.25, Y139.00

Bids Y138.25, Y138.00, Y137.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.50, Y103.00, Y102.75/80

Bids Y102.00, Y101.60, Y101.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8160/65, stg0.8150, stg0.8100

Bids stg0.8050, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8005/000

The Office for National Statistics released the U.K. labour market data. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in the three months to April from 6.8% in the previous three months. That was the lowest level since early 2009. Analysts had expected a decline to 6.7%.

Jobless claims (claimant count) declined by 27,400 in May, compared with a forecast for a decline of 25,000 people. April’s figure was revised to a decrease of 28,400 from 25,100.

Weekly earnings increased by 0.7% in the three months to April, missing expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 1.7% rise in the previous three months. The growth of wages is slower than inflation in the U.K. The inflation rate in the UK was 1.8% in April.

EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3575, $1.3600, $1.3625

USD/JPY Y102.05, Y102.25, Y102.65, Y103.00

EUR/JPY Y139.00, Y140.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8080, stg0.8115

EUR/CHF Chf1.2180-85, Chf1.2200

USD/CAD Cad1.0900

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:30    Australia                Westpac Consumer Confidence          June     -6.8%                  0.2%

08:30    United Kingdom     Average Earnings, 3m/y                     April      +1.7%  +1.2%  +0.7%

08:30    United Kingdom     Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y  April      +1.3%  +1.2%  +0.9%

08:30    United Kingdom     Claimant count                                   May       -25.1     -25.0    -27.4

08:30    United Kingdom     Claimant Count Rate                          May       3.3%                   3.2%

08:30    United Kingdom     ILO Unemployment Rate                    April       6.8%     6.7%     6.6%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. The U.S. dollar was supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasuries climbed to 2.64% on Tuesday. That was the highest yield since last month.

The New Zealand dollar rose against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major economic reports. The kiwi was supported by expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will raise interest rates again later in the day. Investors expect the RBNZ will hike its interest rate by 0.25% to 3.25%.

The Australian dollar climbed to 1-month highs against the U.S. dollar due to the better-than-expected consumer sentiment data from Australia. The Westpac consumer confidence in Australia increased 0.2% in June, after a 6.8% decline in May.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of the economic data in Japan. Japan's BSI manufacturing index for the second quarter declined to 13.9 points from 12.7 in the first quarter, missing expectations for a rise to 14.1.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3520

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y102.25

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    OPEC                    OPEC Meetings                                                             

14:30    U.S.                       Crude Oil Inventories             June      -3.4                      

18:00    U.S.                       Federal budget                      May       106.9    -142.8  

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Interest Rate Decision                3.00%   3.25%   

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Rate Statement                                                

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Press Conference                                                            

23:01    United Kingdom     RICS House Price Balance        May       54%       52%      

23:50    Japan                    Core Machinery Orders            April      +19.1% -10.8% 

23:50    Japan                    Core Machinery Orders, y/y     April      +16.1%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3624 (945)

$1.3603 (199)

$1.3573 (64)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3539

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3511 (1004)

$1.3494 (3806)

$1.3471 (4209)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 3 is 25329 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (2550);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date July, 3 is 40566 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3500 (5348);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.60 versus 1.60 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 10.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7001 (993)

$1.6903 (1236)

$1.6805 (1180)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6751

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6694 (1036)

$1.6597 (1962)

$1.6499 (1811)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 3 is 13575 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7100 (1280);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date July, 3 is 16200 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6600 (1962);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.19 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 10.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.