Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 11-07-2013

Euro fell after the day before the euro rose against the U.S. dollar by over 400 pips on the comments of Fed chairman Bernanke. Today events related to the euro, a bit, and the focus of the players was a weekly report on the U.S. labor market, the importance of which has increased since yesterday. Analysts forecast a modest drop in new applications for unemployment benefits. However, the report of the Ministry of Labor showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, which are an indicator of layoffs for the week June 30 - July 6 rose by 16,000 and adjusted for seasonal variation was 360,000. Released report increased pressure on the single currency.

Japanese yen shows mixed results against the dollar amid the announcement of the results of the two-day meeting. Note that the Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the economic situation in the country, saying that the economy is starting to recover moderately. At the end of the two-day meeting of the central bank left its policy unchanged and stuck to the positive outlook for the 2015 financial year. Apparently, the Bank believes that a radical program of monetary easing policy, launched in April, will help stop the decline in prices, which is observed in Japan for over 15 years.

The Bank of Japan has confirmed its intention to continue the qualitative and the quantitative easing monetary policy to achieve the inflation target of 2%. At the same time, the Central Bank has revised its forecast for GDP and inflation for the current financial year. Now the growth of the Japanese economy in fiscal 2013, expects the Bank of Japan will be 2.8% versus 2.9% projected in April. Inflation forecast was revised to 0.6% from 0.7% previously anticipated. Expectations for the 2014 fiscal year were also deteriorated: GDP growth is now expected at 1.3% vs. 1.4% previously forecast.

Among the risks that the economy remains high degree of uncertainty related to the debt problems in Europe, the situation in developing economies and economies, strongly related to the export of raw materials, as well as growth in the U.S.. Also, the Central Bank has kept its target to increase the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen per year. Regulatory decisions were not surprising and in line with the forecasts of most economists.

The Australian dollar declined significantly against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the release of unemployment data. According to information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, at the end of June the unemployment rate in Australia increased, rising at the same time to the highest level since 2009 against the background of a marked increase in the number of people who were looking for work full-time. We also add that while there was an increase in the number of employees, which was due to the surge in part-time work, the number of employed full-time dropped.

According to the report, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose in June to a level of 5.7 percent, compared to the upwardly revised figure for May of 5.6 percent (originally reported on the index at the level of 5.5%). Note that the June reading was the highest since September 2009. The data also showed that the number of unemployed increased by 23,700 in May and June, while reaching the level of 709 300 people.

EUR/USD $1.2770, $1.2800, $1.2825, $1.2830, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y98.90, Y99.00, Y99.75, Y100.50, Y100.65, Y101.00, Y101.50, Y102.00

EUR/JPY Y131.00

GBP/USD $1.4825, $1.4850, $1.4875, $1.5000

EUR/GBP stg0.8600

USD/CHF Chf0.9500, Chf0.9600

EUR/CHF Chf1.2370, Chf1.2450

AUD/USD $0.9050, $0.9200, $0.9225, $0.9250

AUD/JPY Y92.75

USD/CAD C$1.0550, C$1.0560

Data

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation July +2.3% +2.6%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate June 5.5% 5.6% 5.7%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed June +1.1 +0.3 +10.3

02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

02:30 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

06:45 France CPI, m/m June +0.1% +0.1% +0.2%

06:45 France CPI, y/y June +0.8% +0.9% +1.0%

07:15 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report July

08:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

08:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Miles Speaks

Euro fell against the U.S. dollar, as the effects of Bernanke's speech slowly fade away. Today events related to the euro, a bit, and the focus of the players a weekly report on the U.S. labor market, the importance of which has increased since yesterday. Analysts forecast a modest drop in new applications for unemployment benefits. This is a reasonable estimate, given that the private sector wages continue to grow at a moderate pace in June.

Recent trends in unemployment also implies an increase in the near future. Despite the decline in recent weeks, slowing four-week average continues to drift. This is an encouraging reason to think that the economy is still on the path of slow but steady recovery. In a report last week, the number of new claims fell by about 8% compared with a year earlier at a seasonally adjusted basis. This is more or less the average rate of decline in 2013 so far. The labor market is very far from the danger zone, and today's update is likely to confirm this

Japanese yen shows mixed results against the dollar amid the announcement of the results of the two-day meeting. Note that the Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the economic situation in the country, saying that the economy is starting to recover moderately. At the end of the two-day meeting of the central bank left its policy unchanged and stuck to the positive outlook for the 2015 financial year. Apparently, the Bank believes that a radical program of monetary easing policy, launched in April, will help stop the decline in prices, which is observed in Japan for over 15 years.

The Bank of Japan has confirmed its intention to continue the qualitative and the quantitative easing monetary policy to achieve the inflation target of 2%.

At the same time, the Central Bank has revised its forecast for GDP and inflation for the current financial year. Now the growth of the Japanese economy in fiscal 2013, expects the Bank of Japan will be 2.8% versus 2.9% projected in April. Inflation forecast was revised to 0.6% from 0.7% previously anticipated. Expectations for the 2014 fiscal year were also deteriorated: GDP growth is now expected at 1.3% vs. 1.4% previously forecast.

Among the risks that the economy remains high degree of uncertainty related to the debt problems in Europe, the situation in developing economies and economies, strongly related to the export of raw materials, as well as growth in the U.S..

Also, the Central Bank has kept its target to increase the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen per year. Regulatory decisions were not surprising and in line with the forecasts of most economists.

The Australian dollar declined significantly against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the release of unemployment data. According to information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, at the end the month of June the unemployment rate in Australia increased, rising at the same time to the highest level since 2009 against the background of a marked increase in the number of people who were looking for work full-time. We also add that while there was an increase in the number of employees, which was driven by a surge in the part-time, number of people employed full-time dropped.

According to the report, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose in June to a level of 5.7 percent, compared to the upwardly revised figure for May of 5.6 percent (originally reported on the index at the level of 5.5%). Note that the June reading was the highest since September 2009.

The data also showed that the number of unemployed increased by 23,700 in May and June, while reaching the level of 709 300 people.

Statistical Office also reported that the number of persons seeking full-time employment has increased in the past month at 16,900, compared with the previous month, reaching at the same level of 525,900 people. The same time, it became known that the number of persons seeking employment in part-time work has increased in June 6800 - to the level of 183,400 people.

Meanwhile, the data showed that the number of employed persons increased by 10,300 to 11.67 million people. Add that many economists had forecast a slight change in the number of employees (an increase of 0.3 million people), after it fell in May to 700 (originally reported growth of 1.1 thousand people). The data also showed that the total employment fell by 4,400 in June from May, while part-time employment increased by 14,800 people.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3017, before recovering slightly

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.5059, but then rose to $ 1.5145

USD / JPY: during the European session, moved up from Y98.25 to Y99.50

At 12:30 GMT Canada will release the index of housing prices in the primary market in May. Also, in this time, the U.S. will announce the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, including repeated applications for unemployment benefits, as well as release the import price index for June. At 17:00 GMT the United States places the 30-year bonds. At 18:00 GMT the United States will be released monthly performance report for June.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3250, $1.3210, $1.32085, $1.3130-50, $1.3060/65

Bids $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2985/80, $1.2965/60

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5250/60, $1.5220/25, $1.5200, $1.5150/60, $1.5100/10

Bids $1.5062, $1.5010/00, $1.4990, $1.4970/65, $1.4950/40

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9380, $0.9340/50, $0.9300/10, $0.9280/85

Bids $0.9200, $0.9150, $0.9130/25, $0.9100, $0.9085/80

EUR/JPY

Offers Y131.00, Y130.75/80, Y130.45/50, Y130.20, Y129.85/90

Bids Y129.00, Y128.50, Y128.39, Y128.25/20, Y128.15

USD/JPY

Offers Y100.90/00, Y100.50, Y100.00, Y99.80, Y99.60/65

Bids Y98.65/60, Y98.30/20, Y98.00, Y97.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8740/45, stg0.8715/20, stg0.8700/05, stg0.8690/95

Bids stg0.8640/35, stg0.8600, stg0.8575/65, stg0.8515/10, stg0.8500

EUR/USD $1.2770, $1.2800, $1.2825, $1.2830, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y98.90, Y99.00, Y99.75, Y100.50, Y100.65, Y101.00, Y101.50, Y102.00

EUR/JPY Y131.00

GBP/USD $1.4825, $1.4850, $1.4875, $1.5000

EUR/GBP stg0.8600

USD/CHF Chf0.9500, Chf0.9600

EUR/CHF Chf1.2370, Chf1.2450

AUD/USD $0.9050, $0.9200, $0.9225, $0.9250

AUD/JPY Y92.75

USD/CAD C$1.0550, C$1.0560

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation July +2.3% +2.6%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate June 5.5% 5.6% 5.7%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed June +1.1 +0.3 +10.3

02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

02:30 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

The dollar declined versus most of its major peers after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said inflation and unemployment rates show the U.S. economy still requires very accommodative monetary stimulus. “Highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what’s needed in the U.S. economy,” Bernanke said yesterday in response to a question after a speech.

The Dollar Index tumbled before a report today that may show continuing jobless claims rose. The U.S. Labor Department will probably say today the number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits rose to 2.96 million in the period through June 29 from 2.93 million in the previous week, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. First-time claims may have declined to 340,000 in the week ended July 6 from 343,000 in the period through June 28. That underscores views in minutes of the Fed’s last meeting released yesterday, which showed many policy makers want to see more signs that employment is picking up before they’ll begin slowing bond purchases.

The yen held its advance against the dollar after BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his fellow policy makers upgraded their assessment of Japan’s economy, saying it’s starting to recover moderately. Officials kept plans to increase the monetary base by 60 trillion yen ($608 billion) to 70 trillion yen a year and said they expect the core consumer price index to rise 0.6 percent for the current fiscal year, compared with a forecast for a 0.7 percent gain in April.

The Australian dollar touched a 4 1/2-year low versus its New Zealand peer after government data showed Australia’s unemployment rate climbed in June to 5.7 percent from a revised 5.6 percent in the previous month, even after employers added 10,300 jobs.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair is trading around the $ 1.5100

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair is trading around the $ 1.5100

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y98.20-Y99.60

There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Thursday, although the market will initially be focused on the dovish comments from Fed Chair Bernanke in his Q&A session overnight. German data gets us underway with the release of the German June wholesale prices at 0600GMT. Then at 0645GMT, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure will give a keynote address at the Europlace Financial Forum in Paris. At 0800GMT, the June IEA monthly oil market report will be released. At the same time, ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann will give a speech on financial stability, in Munich.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3022 +1,81%

GBP/USD $1,5061 +1,29%

USD/CHF Chf0,9534 -2,03%

USD/JPY Y99,53 -1,56%

EUR/JPY Y129,60 +0,29%

GBP/JPY Y149,89 -0,22%

AUD/USD $0,9221 +0,53%

NZD/USD $0,7901 +0,68%

USD/CAD C$1,0428 -0,96%

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation July +2.3%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate June 5.5% 5.6%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed June +1.1 +0.3

02:00 China New Loans June 667 800

02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

02:30 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270

06:45 France CPI, m/m June +0.1% +0.1%

06:45 France CPI, y/y June +0.8% +0.9%

07:15 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report July

08:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

08:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Miles Speaks

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index May +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims July 343 336

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index June -0.6% +0.1%

18:00 U.S. Federal budget June -138.7 42.1