Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 11-12-2017

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence November 8

00:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter III 1.9% 0.6%

04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index October -0.2%

06:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Finally) Quarter III 0.4% 0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m November 0.1% 0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) November 1.0% 1.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) November 4.6% 6.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) November 2.8% 3.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) November 0.2% 0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y November 2.7% 2.7%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y November 4.0% 4.1%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m November 0.1% 0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y November 3.0% 3.0%

10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment December 30.9 30.2

10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment December 18.7 17.9

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m November 0.4% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y November 2.4% 2.4%

13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y November 2.8% 2.9%

13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m November 0.4% 0.4%

19:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

19:00 U.S. Federal budget November -63.0 -135.2

21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y November 2.7%

22:15 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks

23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence December 99.7

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders October -8.1% -1.8%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y October -3.5% -2.8%

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.0 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million and separations were little changed at 5.2 million. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and
discharges rate were little changed at 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.

• A few injuries reported in incident at New York's port authority - WABC news citing police sources

AUD/JPY 4-hour time frame chart

As we can see on 4-hour time frame chart, the price has been falling and respecting a downside trend line.

However, the price has been correcting its last bearish movement and now it seems that there is a potential new bearish movement soon.

We can see that the price is rejecting the resistance level and the fibonacci's levels, therefore, we can expect a further downside movement, at least to the previous low.

• A rising share of new housing loans to households shows relatively high loan-to-value, debt service-to-income and debt-to-income ratios

• Russia, India, China do not want tensions on Korean peninsula to be further escalated

EUR/USD: 1.1640(518 m), 1.1700(980 m), 1.1800(1.02 b), 1.1900(606 m), 1.1950(372 m), 1.200(505 m)

USD/JPY: 111.95-112.00(881 m), 113.00-10(1.06 b), 113.20(371 m), 113.40(345 m)

USD/CHF: 0.9900(465 m), 0.9940(275 m), 1.0200(540 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7550(214 m), 0.7610-15(340 m), 0.7790(295 m)

NZD/USD: 0.6790(300 m), 0.6915(208 m), 0.6950-51(328 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2900(580 m)

EUR/JPY: 133.25(660 m)

EUR/GBP: 0.8820(280 млн)

AUD/NZD: 1.1000(252 млн)

In October 2017, the retail trade decreased by 2.1% compared with October 2016, all store types showed decline as food retailing was down 1.7% and non-food retailing was down 2.4%.

Estimates of the value of retail sales fell month-on-month also: -1.0% compared with September 2017.

The underlying pattern, as measured by the 3 month on 3 month estimate, showed a contraction in October 2017, where the value of sales decreased by 0.1% and the volume of sales was down 0.2%.

The volume of retail trade dropped by 2.9% compared with October 2016 and decreased by 1.1% compared with September 2017.

• Believes in Israel's interest to find sustainable mideast solution

• Expresses full support to king of Jordan in peace process

• Condemns all attacks on jews, including in Europe and on Israel

• Says implementation of NPL addendum to be delayed by a "few months":

• New Zealand government says Orr will take up role on march 27

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1902 (2100)

$1.1884 (1029)

$1.1856 (208)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1779

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1713 (3199)

$1.1675 (3854)

$1.1634 (3017)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 87829 contracts (according to data from December, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (4810);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3595 (3607)

$1.3546 (1844)

$1.3510 (1430)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3397

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3302 (1563)

$1.3238 (1971)

$1.3161 (1827)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 5 is 27820 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3607);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 27653 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (2426);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.99 versus 0.88 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 8

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.