Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 12-04-2018

Lower prices for new homes in Toronto were the main reason for a national price decline in February.

Following two consecutive months of no change, new home prices were down 0.2% nationally. This was the first decrease at the Canada level since July 2010. Recent mortgage rate increases along with tighter mortgage regulations are likely contributors to the decline.

Builders in Toronto reduced their prices by 0.6% in February, citing unfavourable market conditions. This was the second consecutive decline, and the largest for this census metropolitan area (CMA) in eight years.

In the week ending April 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 228,250.

Import prices recorded no change in March following rises of 0.3 percent in February and 0.8 percent in January. The index has not declined on a monthly basis since decreasing 0.2 percent in July 2017. Prices for U.S. imports rose 3.6 percent between March 2017 and March 2018. The last 12-month decline in import prices was a 0.2-percent drop for the period ended October 2016.

Prices for U.S. exports rose for the ninth consecutive month in March, advancing 0.3 percent. Increasing prices for agricultural exports drove the monthly advance, more than offsetting lower nonagricultural export prices. U.S. export prices increased 3.4 percent over the 12-month period ended in March and have not recorded an over-the-year drop since a 0.2-percent decline in November 2016.

In February 2018 compared with January 2018, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.8% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In January 2018, industrial production fell by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28. In February 2018 compared with February 2017, industrial production increased by 2.9% in the euro area and by 3.1% in the EU28.

• Expect broadly unchanged availability of unsecured lending to consumers over next 3 months

• Lenders report largest drop in availability of unsecured lending to consumers in q1 since records started in 2007

• Says free trade needs a champion at the moment

• The trade argument with the EU will not be around tariffs, but will be around regulation

• The benefits of the city of London are so enormous that the critical mass of financial services will not leave after Brexit

• World economic environment remains positive but trade disputes pose significant risks

• Consumer demand has recently been less dynamic

• Consumer and trading sentiment remains optimistic

In March 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased by 1.0% over one month, after a stability in February. This rise came from a rebound in "manufactured product" prices after the end of winter sales (+2.1% after −0.3%) and in food prices (+0.4% after −0.1%). Furthermore, tobacco prices rose markedly (+13.2%) and those of services accelerated over one month (+0.4% after +0.1% in February). On the other hand, energy prices sharply fell back (−0.7%) in the wake of petroleum product prices.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices recovered by +0.5%, after a 0.3% downturn in February.

Year on year, consumer prices sharply accelerated in March 2018: +1.6% after +1.2%. This increase in the year-on-year inflation resulted from a sharper rise in prices of services, food and tobacco. On the other hand, energy prices slightly slowed down and those of "manufactured product" fell back.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2471 (2252)

$1.2455 (1393)

$1.2429 (225)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2372

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2331 (2572)

$1.2302 (3357)

$1.2267 (3935)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 75960 contracts (according to data from April, 11) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2250 (4242);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4304 (2114)

$1.4264 (2029)

$1.4230 (883)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4191

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4149 (402)

$1.4130 (502)

$1.4107 (894)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 23301 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3202);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 23968 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2488);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 11

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Says U.S. actions so far are typical trade protectionism, unilateralism

• China is well-prepared if U.S. escalates on trade, will fight back without hesitation

• Hope to implement lowering tariffs on various foreign goods including autos as soon as possible

• All policymakers said further tightening policy likely warranted, almost all agreed gradual approach appropriate

• Some Fed policymakers said future Fed statements might need to signal that policy will shift to being a neutral or restraining factor for the economy

• Almost all policymakers supported hike at march meeting; a couple pointed to possible benefits of postponing hike

• Policymakers generally saw economic effects of fiscal policy changes as uncertain due to dearth of historical precedents

• All Fed policymakers expected 12-month inflation to rise in coming months; policymakers noted the widely expected increase would not by itself justify change in projected rate path