Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 12-06-2013

EUR/USD $1.3040, $1.3150, $1.3190, $1.3200, $1.3250

USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.50, Y98.00, Y98.95, Y99.00, Y100.00

GBP/USD $1.5500

USD/CHF Chf0.9410

EUR/CHF Chf1.2300

AUD/USD $0.9450, $0.9500

Data

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence June -7.0% +4.7%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report June

05:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Finally) Quarter I -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) May +0.4% +0.4% +0.4%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) May +1.5% +1.5% +1.5%

06:45 France CPI, m/m May -0.1% +0.3% +0.1%

06:45 France CPI, y/y May +0.7% +0.9% +0.9%

08:00 Germany Constitutional Court Ruling

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate April 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y April +0.4% +0.3% +1.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y April +0.8% +0.8% +0.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count May -7.3 -6.8 -8.6

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate May 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) April +1.0% -0.2% +0.4%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) April -1.7% -1.1% -0.6%

09:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Fisher Speaks

The dollar rose against the euro, as to the interest to sell the pair increases. It should be noted that market participants following the news of the German Constitutional Court, where the second day of hearings on the legality of the program OMT, used by the European Central Bank. Yesterday, the European euro topped $ 1.33 level, but soon lost his position. An important goal for many graphs runs around $ 1.3340. A break of yesterday's low of $ 1.3230 would question the recent uptrend of the single currency.

It is worth noting that part of the dynamics of the affected data for Germany, which showed that by the end of last month inflation rate in Germany increased, which was associated with an increase in food prices, but remained below the target level of the European Central Bank.

According to the report, in May, the annual inflation rate rose to 1.5%, compared with 1.2% in April, confirming a preliminary assessment, and being in line with expectations of experts. The data also showed that on a monthly basis the consumer price index rose by 0.4%, which followed a 0.5% decline in the previous month. It should be noted that this value is consistent with the preliminary estimates and forecasts of analysts.

The Federal Bureau of Statistics also reported that the acceleration of the pace of the harmonized inflation in the country in May. However, the inflation rate was lower than the preliminary values. Harmonized index of consumer prices has risen from 1.1% in April to 1.6% in May from 1.7% previously calculated. Inflation has remained below the strategically important level of 2%. This level is important to determine the course of monetary policy. On a monthly basis, the harmonized index of consumer prices rose by 0.3% in May, as suggested earlier, after slowing to 0.5% a month earlier.

The pound traded restraint against the U.S. dollar is now at the level of the opening day. Increase the exchange rate did not help even data from the Office for National Statistics, which showed that by the end of last month the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased markedly ahead with the predictions of most experts.

According to the report, in May, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 8,600 units, compared with a revised downwards index for April at 11,800. It should be noted that the estimated value of the indicator economists was reduced to 6800, compared to a fall of 7300, which was originally reported last month.

The data also showed that for the three months that ended in April, the employment rate fell to 71.5% from 71.4% in the previous three months. Recall that the last time such a measure has been recorded in the last quarter of 2012.

In addition, the Office for National Statistics also reported that the recent slowdown in revenue growth reversed in the three months to April. According to data for the three months that ended in April, the average weekly gross earnings increased by 1.3% compared with the same period a year earlier, followed a growth of 0.6% in the three months to March. Analysts expect further slowdown in the last three months. In addition, it was reported that average earnings, which excludes bonuses and overtime, increased for the three months (to March) of 0.9%, compared with an increase of 0.8% in March. Also, today's report showed that the unemployment rate is estimated ILO has remained unchanged for the three-month period (April) - at 7.8%, which was in line with the expectations of experts.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3263

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5685, but then fell to the opening level

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y97.04 to Y96.28

At 17:00 GMT the United States places the 10-year bonds. At 18:00 GMT the United States will be released monthly performance report for May. At 21:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's main interest rate, and will be a press conference by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Also this time, the accompanying statement will be presented to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the minutes of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3430/35, $1.3400, $1.3370/80, $1.3360, $1.3340/50

Bids $1.3270, $1.3255/50, $1.3220, $1.3200-185

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5750/60, $1.5730, $1.5700, $1.5684

Bids $1.5630/20, $1.5605/00, $1.5585/80, $1.5530/20

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9700, $0.9680, $0.9650, $0.9600

Bids $0.9450, $0.9410/00, $0.9380, $0.9355/50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8595/600, stg0.8575/80, stg0.8560/65, stg0.8551, stg0.8512

Bids stg0.8464, stg0.8445/40, stg0.8420, stg0.8400

EUR/JPY

Offers Y129.90/00, Y129.50, Y129.15/20, Y129.00, Y128.60/65

Bids Y128.00, Y127.75/70, Y127.50, Y127.00, Y126.55/50

USD/JPY

Offers Y98.00, Y97.80, Y97.50, Y96.85/90

Bids Y96.30/20, Y96.00, Y95.75/70, Y95.50

EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3210, $1.3285, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y95.80, Y97.00, Y97.25, Y97.50, Y98.00, Y98.40, Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.05, Y99.50

EUR/JPY Y128.00, Y130.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8535

EUR/CHF Chf1.2375, Chf1.2400

AUD/USD $0.9350, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9550, $0.9580

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence June -7.0% +4.7%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report June

The euro was less than 0.1 percent from its highest in 3 1/2 months before European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure speaks as expectations for lower benchmark interest rates in the region decline. The ECB's Coeure is due to speak in Berlin on the role of central banks in managing crisis and growth. In a speech on June 10, he said policy makers have the ability to provide additional stimulus to aid the currency bloc's economy. ECB President Mario Draghi said June 6 the euro-area economy will return to growth by the end of the year as policy makers held back further stimulus measures. The ECB's Governing Council left its main refinancing rate at 0.5 percent after reducing it by a quarter point last month.

The yen fell against all its major counterparts, trimming its biggest gain against the dollar since 2010.

The dollar gained versus the yen before tomorrow's retail sales report which economists forecast will show 0.4 percent growth in May, following a 0.1 percent gain in April, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Australia's dollar rebounded from the lowest in almost three years as consumer confidence rose. "There's probably quite a few people who've got short the Australian dollar near the lows yesterday, and they're now suffering a painful squeeze," said Ray Attrill, the global co-head of foreign-exchange strategy in Sydney at National Australia Bank Ltd. "At the moment, there's the potential for a squeeze up to 95 or 96" U.S. cents, he said. A short position is a bet that an asset's price will fall.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3305/20

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5630/50

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y96.65

There is a full calendar Wednesday, although data is largely skewed towards Europe. The calendar gets underway from 0530GMT, with the release of the French first quarter job creations data. At 0600GMT, Germany's May final HICP numbers are due for release. French data at 0645GMT sees the release of the May HICP numbers and the April current account data. At 0700GMT, in Brussels, EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso is slated to discuss economic policy and preparations for the EU leaders Summit. Also at 0700GMT, Spain's May final HICP is set for release. At 0800GMT, the IEA monthly oil market report numbers are set to cross the wires. Rate, Apr ILO Unemployment Rate and pay data. At 0900GMT, Italy's May final HICP and EMU Apr industrial output numbers will be released. Portugal President Anibal Cavaco Silva is to address the European Parliament, in Strasbourg, France, from 1000GMT.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3312 +0,42%

GBP/USD $1,5643 +0,46%

USD/CHF Chf0,9245 -1,01%

USD/JPY Y96,03 -3,08%

EUR/JPY Y127,86 -2,62%

GBP/JPY Y150,24 -2,59%

AUD/USD $0,9437 -0,23%

NZD/USD $0,7876 -0,28%

USD/CAD C$1,0187 -0,06%

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence June -7.0%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report June

05:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Finally) Quarter I -0.1% -0.1%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) May +0.4% +0.4%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) May +1.5% +1.5%

06:45 France CPI, m/m May -0.1% +0.3%

06:45 France CPI, y/y May +0.7% +0.9%

08:00 Germany Constitutional Court Ruling

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate April 7.8% 7.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y April +0.4% +0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y April +0.8% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count May -7.3 -6.8

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate May 4.5% 4.5%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) April +1.0% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) April -1.7% -1.1%

09:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Fisher Speaks

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories June -6.3

18:00 U.S. Federal budget May 112.9 -110.2

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference