Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 12-11-2018

European Commission Prsident Juncker said in an interview with a German television channel that he was “moderately concerned” with Italy’s relations with the European Union after the European Commission announced that the Rome budget project for 2019 had violated EU budget rules.

“Italians are moving away not only from what they promised us, but also from the minimum requirements of the Stability Pact (EU Budget Rules),” Juncker told the German news channel.

Italy’s budget for 2019 was rejected by the European Commission. The commission gave Rome time until Tuesday to submit a new budget and may initiate disciplinary action against Rome at the end of this month.

• BP rises 1.7% and Royal Dutch Shell A-shares advance 1.4% as the price of a barrel of Brent crude increases by 0.9% to $70.84

• UK PM May Spokesman: Cabinet Has Backed The PM In Moving Forward On Brexit, Expect Them To Continue To Do So

• We Need to Do Whatever It Takes to Balance the Oil Market

• Within Policy Circles, There Is 'No Consideration Whatsoever' to Eliminate OPEC

Danske Bank continues to be long on Danish government bonds versus core bonds, expecting they will benefit from strong liquidity backflow in the middle of the month. The 0.25% November 2018 bond will bond will mature on Nov. 15, and several other Danish bonds will also pay coupons. "We continue to be long Danish government bonds versus core as liquidity is supportive together with little net supply and foreign interest given the 'yield pickup' from the FX forwards," says Danske senior analyst Mikael Olai Milhoj.

• No Doubt That 2019 Will Be Difficult Year

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told CNBC on Monday that his country would increase its involvement in the Pacific. "Australia is a principal participant in the Pacific and we are stepping up our involvement there, both strategically and economically and socially as well," Morrison said.

Moody's Investors Service says in a new report. Trade, political and geopolitical risks will likely escalate as tensions between the US and China heighten. In addition, consequences of slower growth will increasingly thrust globalization and inequality debates into the political arena.

"The slowdown in economic growth will give way to even weaker global credit conditions in 2020, while the multitude of risks on the horizon are increasing both in number and severity," says Elena Duggar, Chair of Moody's Macroeconomic Board. "Tightening monetary policy, worsening economic disputes and slower demand from China are three key drivers that will dominate the weaker growth outlook."

Geopolitical and domestic political tensions will dominate the risk landscape for global credit conditions and credit quality in 2019. Tensions between the US and China will spread far beyond trade disputes, while the risk of the UK withdrawing from the EU without a trade agreement in place has risen. Meanwhile, domestic political risks will continue to weigh on the credit outlooks for Italy, Brazil, Turkey and Argentina.

Advances in digital technologies will lead to productivity improvements and business disruptions as companies face pressure to keep pace with a changing competitive landscape. Meanwhile, cyber risks and data privacy issues will add to operational and reputational risks for governments and industries.

• Pence Says Trump's Absence At Asia Summits Is Not A Snub

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1474 (1727)

$1.1449 (621)

$1.1413 (55)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1337

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1293 (5117)

$1.1268 (2350)

$1.1238 (3428)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 117582 contracts (according to data from November, 9) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6093);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3130 (2110)

$1.3092 (1194)

$1.3062 (614)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2968

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2907 (1312)

$1.2867 (1033)

$1.2843 (2346)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 54313 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (5071);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 44476 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4365);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.82 versus 1.28 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 9

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.