Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 13-11-2017

03:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence October 7

05:00 China Retail Sales y/y October 10.3% 10.4%

05:00 China Industrial Production y/y October 6.6% 6.3%

05:00 China Fixed Asset Investment October 7.5% 7.4%

10:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) October 0.1% 0.0%

10:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) October 1.8% 1.6%

10:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter III 2.1%

10:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter III 0.6% 0.6%

11:05 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

11:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y October 0.8%

12:00 Eurozone ECB's Lautenschläger Speech

12:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) October 0.2% 0.3%

12:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) October 8.4% 4.9%

12:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) October 0.4% 1.0%

12:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) October 3.3% 2.9%

12:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y October 2.7% 2.8%

12:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y October 3.9% 4.1%

12:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m October 0.1% 0.2%

12:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y October 3% 3.1%

12:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m October 0.3% 0.2%

13:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment November 26.7

13:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) September 3.8% 3.2%

13:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) September 1.4% -0.6%

13:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Revised) Quarter III 0.7% 0.6%

13:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Revised) Quarter III 2.3% 2.5%

13:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

13:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

13:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment November 17.6 20.0

13:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

13:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

16:15 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

16:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y October 2.2% 2.3%

16:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m October 0.4% 0.2%

16:30 U.S. PPI, m/m October 0.4% 0.1%

16:30 U.S. PPI, y/y October 2.6% 2.4%

18:30 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

On daily time frame chart we can see that there is a chart pattern "Head and Shoulders" which price has broken and now is testing the neckline.

However, during the morning of today and due to some political instability in the Theresa May government we witnessed a depreciation of the pound.

If today´s candle close above or near to the "neckline" then the possibility of long entries still remains valid.

depreciation

• Trims 2018 non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast to 870,000 bpd (prev 940,000 bpd)

• OECD oil inventories fell by 23.6 million barrels in sept to 2.985 bln barrels, 154 mln barrels above 5-year average

• Size of oil supply overhang has fallen considerably since start of year

• Says there is real urgency to make progress in Brexit negotiations

EUR/USD: 1.1550 (370 m), 1.1600(482 m)

USD/JPY: 112.35 (865 m), 112.95-113.00(530 m), 113.10-15(785 m), 114.50(860 m), 115.10(864 m)

GBP/USD: 1.3300 (361 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7610-15 (508 m), 0.7625(223 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2600 (254 m)

EUR/JPY: 133.00 (323 m)

• I respect Powell's insights into markets and economy

• We can continue to reduce regulatory burden on small banks, but need to be cautious about regulations on large banks

• Fed does not have to remove a lot of accommodation to return to neutral

• British interest rate rise justified by higher inflation

• European recovery looks increasingly durable, strengthening and broadening

• EU still to decide names, to consider those responsible for "serious human rights violations"

• Sight deposits of domestic banks at 472.652 bln chf in week ending november 10 versus 468.761 bln chf a week earlier

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the selling prices in wholesale trade increased by 3.0% in October 2017 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In September 2017 and in August 2017 the annual rates of change were +3.4% and +3.2%, respectively.

From September 2017 to October 2017 the index did not change.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1768 (5782)

$1.1725 (1391)

$1.1703 (865)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1657

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1619 (5675)

$1.1593 (5460)

$1.1561 (8190)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 150519 contracts (according to data from November, 10) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (8336);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3309 (3203)

$1.3269 (1271)

$1.3244 (632)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3134

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3143 (1145)

$1.3124 (1099)

$1.3100 (1322)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 8 is 39398 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3203);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 8 is 38881 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4790);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.99 versus 0.97 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 10

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.