Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 14-05-2018

• Forecasts industrial output at 1.3-1.8 pct in april, y/y

• Q2 gdp growth to slow to 1-1.4 pct, y/y, due to high base effect in 2017

• Our latest analyses, presented in march 2018, suggest that the key policy rate will most likely be raised after summer 2018

• Says at the same time, board has given weight to consideration that uncertainty as to the effects of a higher interest rate suggests a cautious approach to rate setting

• Economic activity is now approaching a normal level, and inflation is projected to move up in the period ahead

• U.S. economy is slightly beyond level of full employment

• Doesn't expect inflation to pick up sharply

• Impact of U.S. tax cuts and government spending on economy still uncertain

• Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy could cause firms to alter spending plans in the near term

• Says without doubt our communication will be adjusted given that current rates guidance is explicitly conditioned on the end of net asset purchases

• Sight deposits of domestic banks at 472.752 bln sfr in week ending may 11 versus 473.801 bln sfr a week earlier

• Agreed with Trump for talks to take place on the potential impact of U.S. sanctions on those firms which are conducting business in Iran

• Agreed on the importance of tackling Iran's destabilising activity in the region

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2070 (4551)

$1.2025 (681)

$1.1999 (286)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1957

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1847 (3996)

$1.1812 (2734)

$1.1773 (2752)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 8 is 152031 contracts (according to data from May, 11) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (10247);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3721 (1378)

$1.3692 (1603)

$1.3645 (832)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3561

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3450 (1636)

$1.3422 (2398)

$1.3389 (1251)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 8 is 38108 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (2492);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 8 is 40308 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2398);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.05 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 11.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.