Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 15-01-2018

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) December 2.1%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) December 0.1%

04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index November 0.3%

07:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) December 1.8% 1.7%

07:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) December 0.3% 0.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) December 7.3% 5.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) December 1.8% 0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m December 0.2% 0.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) December 3.0% 2.9%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) December 0.3% 0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y December 3.9% 3.9%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y December 2.7% 2.6%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m December 0.3% 0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y December 3.1% 3%

13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index January 18 18

17:00 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence January 103.3

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders November 5% -1.4%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y November 2.3% -0.7%

• Minutes showed additional arguments for hike were the risk of stronger-than-expected pro-cyclicality of fiscal and income policies in 2018 or that of a chronic worsening of budget expenditure composition

• A major source of uncertainty and upside risks to inflation outlook was the evolution of fuel prices and other utility prices, amid high volatility of international oil prices

• Believes risks from falls in asset prices, any associated economic fallout as & when quantitative easing (qe) is withdrawn are overestimated

• Global financial conditions expected to remain favourable for bond issuance and credit in 2018‍​

The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in November 2017 was €197.5 billion, an increase of 7.7% compared with November 2016 (€183.5 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €171.2 bn, a rise of 7.3% compared with November 2016 (€159.6 bn).

As a result, the euro area recorded a €26.3 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in November 2017, compared with +€23.8 bn in November 2016. Intra-euro area trade rose to €165.5 bn in November 2017, up by 6.9% compared with November 2016. These data are released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

• Japan's financial system maintaining stability

• BoJ will maintain qqe with yield curve control for as long as needed to achieve 2 pct inflation in stable manner

• BoJ will adjust monetary policy as needed to maintain economy's momentum to achieve its price target

• Japan's economy expected to continue expanding moderately

• Japan's economy expanding moderately

• January 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 98.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, and 1.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent.

• March 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 26.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 72.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 1.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.

• May 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 25.8 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 71.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 2.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.

• June 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 36.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 49.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 6.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25.

• August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 11.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 40.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 41 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 6.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 0.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.

• Says recent U.S. statements on Iran nuclear pact do not add optimism

• Says Russia will work to preserve existing Iran nuclear deal

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2313 (4085)

$1.2291 (3476)

$1.2260 (2873)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2224

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2115 (545)

$1.2087 (1716)

$1.2054 (2055)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 94394 contracts (according to data from January, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (5552);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3841 (3190)

$1.3808 (3490)

$1.3788 (1563)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3750

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3623 (201)

$1.3591 (659)

$1.3556 (1233)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 30167 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3490);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 26584 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3246);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.88 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 12

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2086 +0,45%

GBP/USD $1,3732 +1,41%

USD/CHF Chf0,9681 -0,80%

USD/JPY Y111,02 -0,22%

EUR/JPY Y135,31 +1,07%

GBP/JPY Y152,45 +1,18%

AUD/USD $0,7912 +0,27%

NZD/USD $0,7255 -0,07%

USD/CAD C$1,247 -0,40%

00:00 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m December 0.2%

U.S. Bank holiday 10:00

Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted November 18.9 22.4

18:15 United Kingdom MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks

21:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Quarter IV 5%